By: Jim Williams Oct,2018

I took an interest in hurricanes in the mid 1970s and since then have been in or near the core of 10 hurricanes in which half were major. Those were Hurricanes Andrew cat 5 to my south in 1992, Jeanne 2004 cat 3 just to my north I was in core, Matthew 2016 cat 3 just to my east in New Smyrna bch,FL in western eye wall , Irma 2017 cat 4-3 just to my S.W and Hurricane Michael this year where I was in the eye . On a side note hurricane Wilma 2005 passed right over my home with the eye passing over as a cat 2 after hitting S.W Fl as a cat 3. The reason for pointing these out is to let you know I have been in high winds before and that may have helped prepared me for what I was about to go through.

Since 1998 we have provided live hurricane coverage at hurricanecity.com for most major hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and for most other hurricanes hitting the U.S Mainland here is our list of video archives. We have always tried to show live webcams,chaser video,local news and stats as a hurricane is hitting. This process has become increasingly difficult as the years have passed due to copyright concerns, loss of internet streams, cams being taken offline and simply not very good reporting as hurricanes hit. Case in point the Weather Channel coverage consist’s of multiple reporters on scene with most if not all of them outside of the core of highest winds. They often show their main stars leaning in to the wind or getting blown over which can happen in category one conditions when the hurricane itself is major. Quite a few storm chasers used to participate in our coverage but have chosen to sell their video rather than share it live. This sets the stage for my intercept of Hurricane Michael in Panama City,Florida October 10th,2018.

Earlier this season Hurricane Florence was headed towards North Carolina and I wanted in the worst way to be there covering it as it moved onshore. I lost a close friend and had to attend her funeral the weekend prior to Florence hitting. The time left over would not have allowed me to set up properly in time to do an effective job covering Florence. At the time I thought “well usually (except for last year) there is one big one for the U.S (or none) and that is it” , but nearly one month later things would change as Hurricane Michael would head for the Florida panhandle.

So now that you know why I went in to the teeth of the tiger ,let me tell you what is was like the day before Michael hit. Oct 9th I traveled though Panacea,Apalachicola,Port Saint Joe & Mexico beach before settling in Callaway near Tyndall Air force base. At this time winds along the coast were brisk but probably not much over tropical storm force minimum of 40 mph. While passing through Apalachicola I noticed some small vessels and docks sunk beneath the rising tides. Traffic was light mainly outgoing but hwy 98 was passable late in the afternoon in both directions. It did not appear at this time that any homes were being inundated even if they were they were on stilts. My thoughts were NO–NO & NO for deployment to this area for Michael or any other storm as getting away from the surge would be problematic. Honestly the entire big bend Florida area scares the hell out of me when it comes to water inundation as low lying and vulnerable to huge surge. From just east of Panacea on Apalachee Bay all the way to my target area most homes were boarded up & people were getting out. Even fuel was scarce most stations with yellow caution tape on pumps as out of gas. I found one isolated gas station south of Panacea that still had fuel so I topped off the truck which ended up being my smartest decision the entire trip. As I was leaving Apalachicola it was as if I was saying goodbye to all of those structures along the coast but luckily most survived due to Michael making landfall further north. With a full tank of gas which is enough to get 300 miles I continued west towards Port Saint Joe. I had tentative plans to stay at the mainstay suites in Port St Joe but after viewing the property it appeared there were too many trees and the hotel was isolated from the downtown areas so I decided to head north. It turns out that the hotel had very little damage & many of the surrounding trees were left standing possibly due to Michael hitting further north.

Each of these towns leading towards Panama City are separated by long stretches of wooded areas along hwy 98. As I entered Mexico beach from the south the tree canopy was suddenly absent with long stretches of exposed beaches. Small hotels & larger condos sprinkle the shoreline with restaurants,small stores & residential homes on the east side of hwy 98. Most structures on the coast looked well built even though they were mostly wood framed. Some condos looked to be CBS but again with a potential major hurricane on the way the place did not look safe at all. The few small hotels were not even an option as they were boarded up & wisely abandoned. If my truck were to survive, would I want to sleep in it for three days? NO. This ended up being ground zero right front quadrant of Hurricane Michael and every conceivable option for lodging ended up being destroyed. The town looked mostly abandoned a few people & cars driving around but very quiet. At the north end of Mexico Beach I was going to set my remote camera up on a canal facing the Gulf which in hind site would have been epic and could have caught the southern portion of the eye but retrieval would be difficult getting back in to this area from the north.

After deciding Mexico beach was probably not going to be an option I headed further north through another stretch of woods several miles to reach Tyndall Air Force Base. Several large guarded entry ways for military personnel only stretch all the way north to the Dupont bridge leading in to Callaway. Again this area very quiet as the bases were probably left with skeleton crews. There are no hotels in this stretch of hwy 98 which forced me in to Callaway but not before I found a good position to mount the remote camera where I could retrieve it before leaving. Notice the photo below the bill board crashed to the ground & the condo roofs took a beating.

After driving north on Tyndall blvd it appeared the closest hotel to the coast was the Comfort Suites. I investigated several other hotels just to the north but they did not seem as sturdy as the comfort suites and I ended up being right as they sustained significant damage in comparison. The photo below shows surrounding heavy damage but the hotel lost just shingles, some windows and part of the front canopy. The striking thing to me was that no one seemed real concerned about was was coming,even the clerk at the front desk did not seem to be concerned. I asked about a generator,are the windows thick?, do you have a room on the second floor in case of flooding?, do you have a room facing north figuring at check in the winds would be mostly south & southwest all questions seemed awkward for her.

Eve of Hurricane Michael we broadcast live on Facebook and Periscope at 8:00PM warning of the danger that is coming. Starting from the beginning of the video the threat is clear even inland is in danger.

Surprisingly the morning of Michael the hotel still had it’s continental breakfast & room service was operating as if everything was normal. I took advantage of the breakfast but my stomach was in knots so I nibbled & grabbed some bananas to go. I work outdoors in harsh conditions year round and have trained myself not to eat too much food or drink too much water as it will come back to haunt you in extreme conditions as bathrooms are not an option. This was yet another good choice as food was scarce in the aftermath along with power or running water. I waited until just before noon for the core to arrive which is a tradition at hurricanecity.com for all hurricane landfalls no broadcast until the worst arrives. Before leaving I made one final call to my co host Bill Phillips questioning if I should head out at all considering we now have a borderline category 5 on our doorstep. We talked about maybe staying under the overhang in front of the hotel but after driving underneath realized the view was not very good. Furthermore the wind would have been pushing straight in on the overhang putting the truck at risk of loosing the front window as the winds would now be East and N.E rather than the anticipated southerly winds. I decided at that moment to head south on Tyndall blvd in order find an open lot to ride it out. Just about a half mile south of the hotel I find a parking lot with a Texaco station which believe it or not was already mangled from either strong straight line winds or a tornado. As the winds at this point were mainly out of the east probably cat one, I decided to face the Texaco station west with the back of the truck in to the wind to be shielded by my lexan protective glass.

As time went by the barometric pressure was dropping like a rock and the winds were picking up gusting to 100mph. As the pressure dropped to around 940mb all hell broke loose with he winds accelerating in what I like to call jet airplane mode. Major hurricane force winds were buffeting the truck with debris slamming into the lexan glass & the back of the truck. This lasted for maybe 15 minutes but it seemed like an hour to me. At one point just before the eye arrives the winds are so strong no matter what direction I faced the air was filled with debris as if a tornado was hitting seen in short version below.

Meanwhile the remote camera on the east bay was getting annihilated . The clips in the videos speaks for the violent conditions the camera was enduring which operated through most of the storm. White out conditions pretty much prevented any real good video so next time it will be mounted closer to nearby objects.

Finally the eye arrives and I get out to survey the damage est pressure 923mb as my last fix was 924.8 while still coming out of the eyewall. I was too involved with damage assessment to check it when the calmest period was over me so I used nearby chasers readings.

As the back side of Michael was approaching I decided to head further south to another open parking lot away from power lines,trees and poles as I knew the winds would be shifting out of the North. Just about every store front window protected by plywood was blown out and the worst was yet to come. As the winds shifted the truck was getting pelted with larger debris than before and shaking more violently. At one point a large children’s playground set was being pushed across the parking lot as the cinder block building to my north blew open pushing items out of the side of the building. Suddenly a large object hit the top of the truck ripping the light bar off & flung it in to the parking lot. At this point I lost my internet connection with Bill & the stream was lost as the worst conditions were upon me. This was a lonely feeling as the truck was getting nailed ,then it happened the lexan glass broke .

Luckily our internet outage only lasted for 15 minutes and we were back on air. For another 15 minutes the winds were well over 100 mph as I continued positioning the truck backing in to the wind. Finally things calmed down & the pressure was rapidly rising as I slowly made my way around downed power lines, trees and power poles to get back to the remote camera. The further south I got towards the camera the more damage their was with more people needing help. You see my truck looks like a city vehicle so obviously people thought I was the first arrival of help. I had several conversations with people explaining injuries needing communications in which 911 was down at the time. People needed to know where shelters were I had limited information and don’t even get me started on how many homeless people were in this area before the hurricane. They all had stories to tell I mean as high as the water rose in that area I cannot even imagine where they escaped to. All I could tell them was that help is on the way as I would later find out huge convoys were headed in.

Altogether these were probably the most dangerous driving conditions I have ever been in as the truck clearance barely made it underneath hanging power lines. At times I had to travel through grass and muddy areas nearly getting stuck but finally made it to retrieve the camera. Upon arriving back at the hotel I noticed about a dozen windows blown out on the north side of the building but luckily my room window was intact. After surveying the hotel it appeared that no staff was present but the main lobby was leaking badly. People were wondering around like zombies taking in all the views of damage with disbelief. Obviously power was out but so was water I could not flush the toilet or run water out of the faucet “oh I am so glad I did not eat”. I did however turn the AC down to its coldest setting right before Michael hit which allowed the cool air to stay in the room so I could get a decent nights sleep. At least that was the plan but all I could hear all night was the sound of wind in my head like white noise replaying the worst of Hurricane Michael. Not to mention with no ACs running you hear every foot step & voice in the hall ways.

After tossing and turning all night I left the hotel around 9AM still no one at the front desk. The hotel looked like it was stuck in time with everything disheveled and people wondering around not knowing what to do or where to go. One woman frantically came up to the truck asking if I knew where any shelters were. She had a disabled child and two elderly people who needed medical attention. Thanks to my buddy Gregg Gibbs in emergency management as he was able to give me some addresses. As I headed north the view of the damage was tremendous with scenes like this Waffle house everywhere. Sadly most of the TV & radio stations were knocked off air. I could only find one AM and one FM station with hurricane information one of them simply looping a press conference, is this the best they can do? PEOPLE NEEDED INFO (FAILURE).

Since 2003 just before or at the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season I release my city predictions with areas I feel have a high to moderate risk of being impacted. Once again this past 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season I accurately predicted 3 of my top 5 locations to be impacted by a named storm or hurricane. Of the remaining 15 locations 12 were impacted ,11 of these locations were impacted by hurricanes. Even if I was not the one making these predictions I would sit up in my chair and pay very close attention. Since 2003 I have only had 2 seasons where none of my top 5 were impacted by a named storm,even in a couple of seasons of less than 14 named storms I have hit on at least 1 of my top 5. For example in 2009 we ended with 9 named storms I still had 2 of my top 5 impacted. The beauty of these predictions are that I use sometimes up to 8 different criteria to choose my top 20. For example this past season one of my criteria is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) in where model projections in April indicated a higher chance of a low to moderate El Nino (warm phase of the southern Oscillation) during the height of the hurricane season. I released my predictions on May 15th based on a weak El Nino which never happened but was also involved in only 2 of the 8 criteria. The other criteria had little to do with the amount of named storms rather return rates and environmental conditions such as the NAO (North Atlantic oscillation).

On September 10th Hurricane Irma hit the lower Florida keys with 130mph winds , my #3 pick this year was Marathon,Florida . This location made my top 5 for the 2017 season based on only 1 of my 8 criteria . Since 1990 Marathon has been impacted when there is an above average NAO in April an amazing 8 times, now i’m just a stats guy that will leave that science to the PHD experts. Marathon was also statistically 2 years overdue for a named storm and 10 years for a hurricane.

Sometimes when viewing these predictions it can be just as useful to see who is not listed. Some very high hit locations that are impacted just about every other year such as Cape Hatteras and the N.W Bahamas were not chosen and had minimal impacts during the 2017 season. Some years there are hard hit areas that I do not pick but this year it was different. Even Ponce,Puerto Rico hit by Hurricane Maria was my #14 pick and those that have followed my predictions closely know I do not pick Puerto Rico locations very often. Gulf Shores,Alabama my #2 pick impacted by Hurricane Nate was chosen because they usually get hit in more active seasons and the chart above shows 13.66 named storms the closest to our final 17. I like using the variation of different criteria as sort of a fail safe scheme but honestly the most important factor are return rates. I do not pick Texas locations that frequently but this year I narrowed it down to Port O’Connor,Texas at #12 that was just missed dead on by Hurricane Harvey as it hit Aransas Pass with 130 mph winds.

What a hurricane season it has been with three major hurricanes hitting land in the Atlantic basin starting with Harvey then Irma and finishing with Maria all within 27 days during the height of the season. Each Hurricane was devastating to the communities affected and it is extremely difficult to rank these three. Each impacted large areas,killed many and crippled infrastructures. Now what does rank mean? I will rank these three hurricanes based on impacts on human lives. I will give descriptions of each of the three hurricanes in order in which they developed (stats may not be exact as these are ongoing disasters). It all started with a tropical depression east of the Windward Islands on August 17th and like it’s predecessors early in the season struggled to survive due to unfavorable conditions aloft. The system weakened to an open wave in the central Caribbean, traveled west crossing the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Caribbean where if finally found a favorable position with low shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. On August 24th it developed into Tropical Storm Harvey in the Bay of Campeche and at this point the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season took a turn for the worst. In less than nine hours Harvey would become a hurricane setting the stage for several powerful hurricanes in less than a month.
Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified to 130 mph as it made it’s way onshore just north Of Corpus Christi,Texas late on August 25th. The wind damage was extensive in Rockport and surrounding communities in Texas but this was just the beginning of what would be a deadly flooding situation in the Houston area over to Port Arthur,TX and western Louisiana. For the next five days Harvey would force nearly 40,000 residents from their homes after dumping over 50″ of rain in some locations as Harvey flooded over 100,000 homes. Costliest of big three est 180 Billion in damage

Less than a week later Tropical Storm Irma forms west of the Cabo Verde Islands and once again becomes a hurricane in less than 24 hrs. On September 6th the eye of Hurricane Irma passed over the tiny island of Barbuda with 185mph winds causing complete devastation and leaving the island uninhabitable. Next up would be the islands of St Martin/Sint Maarten , Anguilla, Saint Barthelemy , St. Kitts and Nevis , St. Eustatius all with extremely heavy damage by the same 185mph winds. Next would be the Virgin Islands of St Thomas and St John 185mph direct hit same results with extreme damage. Irma would pass just north of Puerto Rico causing quite a bit of damage and left residents feeling like they dodged a bullet ,little did they know what was coming next. Hurricane Irma weakened slightly to 165mph while passing just north of Great Inagua Bahamas causing heavy damage but sparing the island of Irma’s worst winds. On September 9th Hurricane Irma raked 250 miles of the north coast of Cuba entering west of Nuevitas regaining cat 5 status and exiting well east of Havana with 120mph winds taking ten lives before turning towards the Florida Keys. On September 10th Hurricane Irma hit the lower keys with 130mph winds while turning NNW causing very heavy damage from Big Pine Key to Islamorada est one in three structures heavily damaged. That same evening of Sept 10th Irma made it’s final landfall in Naples with 110mph winds causing heavy damage to weaker structures such as mobile homes. Irma continued weakening while moving up Florida’s west coast causing hurricane force wind gust’s over nearly the entire peninsula causing the largest power outages in Florida’s history affecting over 6 million customers . Up in Georgia Tropical Storm Irma caused trees to topple and left of 1 Million without power. In South Carolina coastal flooding in some areas was worse than reported from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Most intense winds of big three 185 mph in Barbuda,St Martin/Maarten,Anguilla,Saint Barthelemy,St. Kitts and Nevis , St. Eustatius,St John,St Thomas.

Once again less than a week later on September 16th a tropical depression formed east of the Lesser Antilles. Once again in less than 24 hrs hurricane Maria is born and within 48 hrs Maria becomes major. On the evening of September 18th Hurricane Maria hits the tiny island nation of Dominica with 160 mph winds a category five. The island was devastated and when all finished Maria left 27 dead. Next up would be the island of St Croix where Hurricane Maria was at it’s strongest with 175mph winds while passing just south. The damage here was reported as worse than what happened in 1989s Hurricane Hugo leaving the entire island without power. Next up would be Puerto Rico as Hurricane Maria approached from the S.E on Sept 20th with 155 mph winds and crossing the entire island as a major hurricane. The entire island was hit extremely hard knocking out the entire power structure and killing 51 although those numbers are in dispute ,some say up to 500 were killed. As of this post this outage has caused a loss of 2.5 billion hours of electricity supply making it the largest black out in U.S History. Lowest pressure of the big three upon passage St Croix 910 MB.

So now that we have a general idea of what happened in these affected areas let me state that there are not enough words to adequately describe how much these three hurricanes impacted peoples lives. The common sense answer would be all three are equal in how bad they were, but for arguments sake I will take a shot at which was the worst.

#1 worst Even though Hurricane Irma scored the most highs amongst the three according to the chart above I cannot escape the thought of having the majority of the power grid off line for nearly 2 months as is the case in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria. Dominica and St Croix also have gone for an extended period of time with limited electricty or potable water. All three of these areas will be lucky if the vast majority of residents have all services back up by Christmas. Even cell connectivity is limited in many areas,talk about frustration. Based on between 700,000 & 800,000 housing units not having basic needs makes Hurricane Maria the worst.


2nd worst Maria was known mainly for wind destruction but Hurricane Harvey was known more for flooding in so many areas it’s hard to imagine. Harvey was also a wind machine at landfall in Texas destroying many structures. Harvey took 84 lives mainly due to flooding after it lost hurricane status. Up to 15,500 homes were destroyed with estimates of over 200,000 damaged in the entire impacted area from South Texas to Louisiana. Even though less people were impacted by Hurricane Harvey than Irma the amount of time people have had to deal with re construction and mental anguish puts Hurricane harvey at #2.


3rd worst Even though Hurricane Irma impacted more people probably than the other two combined you can only look at the amount of time the majority of the over 25 million had utilities. The majority of outages in Florida were restored within 1 week and the total 8.7 million that lost power in the S.E United States was 99% restored within 14 days. There were some outages with cell towers but within a week most of that was restored. There was heavy damage in the Florida Keys but they are far better off than the Maria stricken areas. Unfortunately areas of Cuba,Virgin Islands (also impacted by Maria) and the N.E Lesser Antilles especially the island of Barbuda may take years to recover but population wise much less than Maria. Had the peninsula of Florida been hit by the same Irma that hit Cuba and the Lesser Antilles it probably would have been #1.

By Jim Williams 2/21/17 ……Climate change or as I like to call it “Global warming” is trending more ominous for the future of our earth. The sea level rise threat is growing and we are seeing weather extremes on the increase world wide. When it comes to hurricanes there are differing opinions from increased wind shear keeping storms weaker in contrast to storms being bigger and stronger. According to Dr. Ryan N. Maue of Weatherbell Global accumulated cyclone energy values were up just slightly from the sum average in 2016 and the same goes for the Atlantic Basin.

The next question is are we going to see more hurricanes as a result of global warming? The National Hurricane Center’s (HURDAT2) database over the years has actually added named storms that were previously unknown mostly out over the open waters. Despite the additions it does appear that the over all count is slightly increasing especially majors in the Atlantic basin especially since 1995.

Probably the most difficult question is when did global warming start? CO2 as well as increased Methane have been on the rise since according to historic ice core samples but have really taken off since the 1950s. A really handy tool to use can be found on NOAA’s National centers for environmental information where you can choose your state or region to see how temperatures have increased since 1895. After choosing the Atlantic coastal states one by one I have come to the conclusion that temps have steadily increased since 1975 using the month of most hurricane activity in the basin September. The graph below shows both land & sea temps in September globally on the increase so how will the tropics respond in the Atlantic basin?

The most important question is how many named storms will make landfall impacting lives of some people who otherwise could care less about global warming. This is where I like to take the statistics a step further by taking my 152 locations in the HC city Database down to the city level or looking through a microscope. For arguments sake I will use the year 1975 as the (start) of global warming in reference to examining land falling systems in the Atlantic basin. I am using six spread out locations vulnerable to hurricanes to make my point. Data includes all tropical storms, Hurricanes brushes and hits (inc extrop). Starting with Galveston,Texas from 1871 to 1974 had an average return rate of every 2.73 years for a named storm. From 1975 to 2016 unchanged at 2.73.

By Jim Williams Oct 1st,2016

Hurricane Matthew exceeded forecast expectations and became a category 5 hurricane last night in the eastern Caribbean despite some wind shear of 20 to 25 kts from the southwest.

This morning the wind shear continues and Matthew may be weakening slightly as a result.
and here is Matthew 7 hrs later with no visible eye. .
Matthew has already caused some damage in the Windward Islands when it became a tropical storm on the 28th. Inside the yellow circle would indicate tropical storm conditions as a hit in the hurricanecity database.
So now who is next in line to feel the wrath of Hurricane Matthew? It’s been four years since hurricane Sandy hit Kingston Jamaica damaging thousands of homes & causing 100 million (USD) damage , killing one. The models pretty much nailed the track to Jamaica when Sandy was as far south as Matthew as seen here. As of this morning most models show either a hit on east Jamaica or passing just east of the island. The ECMWF model or as I like to call it the “European crystal ball medium range forecast” has this close if not over the Haitian peninsula before heading into the Bahamas.Of course this track changes from run to run as do the other models but we look for trends. Once these systems become major they carry a lot of energy as we have seen in the past with Sandy and Ike bringing huge surges on landfall’s long after being major. The land masses out in front of Matthew regardless of intensity should experience high storm surge and winds for south shores of Jamaica, east Cuba and Haiti on Monday /Tuesday. After that the Bahama islands some of which were hit by Hurricane Joaquin as a cat 3 last year may see a repeat or maybe the N.W Bahamas as the GFS model is showing. Finally the U.S impacts are not yet clear but Matthew could come very close to Florida the S.E and possibly mid Atlantic states but the EURO keeps it further away subject to change. Right now my focus is on the Greater Antilles and Bahamas facing a major threat with millions in harms way.