By : Jim Williams May 18th,2020
As we approach another hurricane season all indications are that it will be a busy one. I am predicting between 18 and 20 named storms in the Atlantic basin. My city landfall predictions are based on calculations of 8 criteria mainly statistical with a couple of environmental such as ENSO analog years & the North Atlantic Oscillation. Below is a chart that I use every year before the season starts to calculate my top 20. I arrive at my top 20 cities & islands by using my eight criteria against every city in the database (140) with the areas making the cut by at least being in one of the boxes below.
As you can see the highlighted yellow boxes indicates #1 Cancun, Mexico has data in the most columns (5) of 8 and therefore wins. Then the real calculations begin for example 3 locations share 4 columns and those 3 have order determined by highest % in each column . Here is the list of what areas have the most columns 5)Cancun, Mexico (alone) 4)St Pierre,NF — Cayman Isl, — Manzanillo, Cuba . 3) Grand Isle,LA — Galveston,TX–Ocean city,MD — Miami,FL — Brownsville,TX 2) Oviedo,DR — ABC Isl –Morehead city,NC — Dauphin Isl,AL — Cabo Corrientes,CU — Norfolk,VA & Barbados 1) Kingston,JA –Myrtle bch,SC — NY,NY — Tampa,FL. Each grouping competes for highest % in each column for pecking order. Based on all my number crunching here is my top 20 #1) most vulnerable to #20)moderate.
#11)Morehead city,North Carolina
#13)Cabo Corrientes, Cuba
#18)Myrtle beach,South Carolina
#19)New York,New York
Of course there will be far more tracks than the two above but I do expect quite a few re curvatures (systems turning north before hitting Bahamas). So to wrap things up my concern this season is for the Western Caribbean & possibly Texas with maybe a east coast rider coming up from the gulf. I must stress that if your city or island is not on this list do not let your guard down. In any given season anyone can be affected but if your in my top 5 batten down the hatches (be ready).