Atlantic:
Hurricane Maria - 100 knots, Tropical Storm Jose - 50 knots, Low (Lee) - 25 knots

Average Model Error Table for the NHC Models for Tropical Storm Jose - 2017

A non-homogeneous comparison of early and late cycle models
Currently Selected Error Date: September 21, 2017 12:00 Z (Latest Available)
Model Error in a:
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Table

About This Product


Only models that were released in the NHC's "aid_public" directory are included here. This means that some models, including ones frequently used, are not included in this error calculation. Please also keep in mind that every storm is different. One model is not always best. Before using this product, consult our product description for methodology. It is important to understand how late cycle models appear in the below model error calculation. With the exception of when late cycle model error data for the 0 hour interval is processed in real time on our site, all model error interval data is associated with when it was initialized, not released. (Late cycle models are initialized 6 hours prior to being released.) For more about the 0 hour interval and how the error date compares to error hour intervals please visit our product description which contains a helpful table. It is extremely important that you know what each hurricane model is for before using this model error feature. Some models do not accurately forecast intensity and in this product these models are alongside ones that do attempt to accurately forecast intensity which can lead to very false conclusions. For example, GFS ensemble members should not be directly compared to a model like the HWRF when it comes to intensity.

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Average Position Error

(in nautical miles)




Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AC00
GFS Ensemble Control Member
12.3 28.0 46.6 73.5 119.2 178.7
AEMI
GFS Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 30.5 52.8 74.4 116.2 172.9
AEMN
GFS Ensemble Mean
11.0 27.4 46.5 69.3 107.0 164.2
AP01
GFS Ensemble +01 member
12.0 44.1 69.6 99.8 145.7 199.9
AP02
GFS Ensemble +02 member
11.1 40.9 68.8 101.2 141.3 197.2
AP03
GFS Ensemble +03 member
12.7 39.4 56.1 87.6 137.1 203.7
AP04
GFS Ensemble +04 member
11.8 47.0 77.2 109.1 149.9 211.3
AP05
GFS Ensemble +05 member
11.0 44.5 69.4 103.0 137.9 195.4
AP06
GFS Ensemble +06 member
10.9 40.2 67.8 97.2 139.8 216.4
AP07
GFS Ensemble +07 member
13.3 42.4 66.7 101.3 154.8 209.5

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AP08
GFS Ensemble +08 member
10.7 43.4 73.5 105.9 147.6 195.8
AP09
GFS Ensemble +09 member
11.1 40.5 68.4 98.4 140.0 213.9
AP10
GFS Ensemble +10 member
11.0 42.7 63.8 93.2 133.0 216.5
AP11
GFS Ensemble +11 member
11.5 43.9 67.8 84.6 130.7 189.9
AP12
GFS Ensemble +12 member
12.9 43.2 75.7 103.4 146.1 216.3
AP13
GFS Ensemble +13 member
12.1 45.4 71.8 94.9 135.0 197.1
AP14
GFS Ensemble +14 member
12.0 49.3 77.3 110.1 157.7 215.1
AP15
GFS Ensemble +15 member
10.8 44.4 67.5 92.7 138.9 202.2
AP16
GFS Ensemble +16 member
12.1 45.5 79.0 111.6 146.4 184.5
AP17
GFS Ensemble +17 member
9.9 39.1 55.1 86.6 137.6 194.9

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AP18
GFS Ensemble +18 member
12.2 40.5 65.0 89.3 134.1 199.2
AP19
GFS Ensemble +19 member
9.9 44.1 65.9 97.9 145.1 201.3
AP20
GFS Ensemble +20 member
11.3 43.5 65.5 96.1 128.0 196.5
AVNI
Previous cycle GFS, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 28.9 51.8 77.3 118.5 162.6
AVNO
NWS / Global Forecast System (GFS model)
11.4 22.8 40.3 68.7 113.3 163.4
CC00
Canadian model Ensemble Control Member
20.4 51.5 70.7 79.0 108.4 151.4
CEM2
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 43.1 76.5 122.7 189.5 278.1
CEMI
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 42.2 72.6 111.0 166.5 245.5
CEMN
Canadian model Ensemble Mean
19.0 53.5 73.3 105.6 161.1 232.3
CLP5
CLImatology and PERsistance model 5-day (CLIPER5)
- 87.9 187.4 269.0 350.4 438.1

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CMC
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canadian model)
22.2 52.3 76.2 99.1 146.1 238.4
CMC2
Canadian model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 45.9 81.3 112.5 190.2 273.5
CMCI
Canadian model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 42.0 69.2 100.9 162.0 238.1
COT2
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 12 hours)
0.8 64.3 114.9 135.7 175.6 210.2
COTC
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model)
14.3 42.5 96.5 123.9 181.1 154.8
COTI
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 48.3 101.3 131.4 186.8 170.2
CP01
Canadian model Ensemble +01 member
19.9 68.4 103.2 154.0 210.5 309.2
CP02
Canadian model Ensemble +02 member
20.8 68.0 101.2 147.2 187.9 243.0
CP03
Canadian model Ensemble +03 member
17.0 70.6 129.9 165.7 224.5 290.1
CP04
Canadian model Ensemble +04 member
20.4 71.1 120.7 207.5 317.5 388.5

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CP05
Canadian model Ensemble +05 member
21.8 73.0 113.9 177.3 240.3 298.1
CP06
Canadian model Ensemble +06 member
20.6 76.1 107.0 139.4 189.7 287.6
CP07
Canadian model Ensemble +07 member
20.9 70.0 121.2 167.6 223.6 309.8
CP08
Canadian model Ensemble +08 member
19.7 74.1 128.5 190.7 292.1 405.4
CP09
Canadian model Ensemble +09 member
19.3 73.8 123.5 171.4 260.4 331.5
CP10
Canadian model Ensemble +10 member
19.8 75.5 123.6 170.8 241.6 322.8
CP11
Canadian model Ensemble +11 member
21.1 68.4 106.7 148.2 194.7 273.9
CP12
Canadian model Ensemble +12 member
21.1 81.5 142.2 217.9 346.2 478.6
CP13
Canadian model Ensemble +13 member
18.0 64.6 103.2 144.3 243.0 376.3
CP14
Canadian model Ensemble +14 member
20.6 64.0 92.9 128.4 194.5 245.4

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CP15
Canadian model Ensemble +15 member
20.8 71.1 113.3 154.7 208.1 258.9
CP16
Canadian model Ensemble +16 member
19.4 73.2 113.8 129.1 212.5 298.6
CP17
Canadian model Ensemble +17 member
20.1 72.8 125.0 201.7 267.6 280.3
CP18
Canadian model Ensemble +18 member
19.5 76.9 107.7 167.6 255.7 367.3
CP19
Canadian model Ensemble +19 member
18.1 58.1 82.7 131.9 192.5 272.9
CP20
Canadian model Ensemble +20 member
17.4 77.5 122.8 171.9 291.4 373.2
CTC2
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version) (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 42.8 45.8 19.1 59.9 137.6
CTCI
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 36.9 70.2 90.9 114.4 150.1
CTCX
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version)
7.8 28.5 61.0 84.3 109.9 139.2
DRCL
DeMaria Radii CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model
0.6 27.2 42.6 66.6 91.6 121.1

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
DSHP
Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
3.6 33.4 52.6 75.2 104.0 146.4
ECME
ECMWF global model Ensemble Control Member [GTS tracker]
14.6 30.6 52.2 77.8 103.6 118.8
ECMO
ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
14.7 27.8 48.0 69.6 95.2 104.4
EE01
ECMWF Ensemble +01 member [GTS tracker]
18.2 38.4 78.3 112.4 153.6 209.8
EE02
ECMWF Ensemble +02 member [GTS tracker]
15.2 44.1 68.6 87.8 117.5 173.5
EE03
ECMWF Ensemble +03 member [GTS tracker]
17.2 46.3 82.1 103.6 130.6 178.7
EE04
ECMWF Ensemble +04 member [GTS tracker]
13.8 43.9 78.7 108.5 142.1 165.7
EE05
ECMWF Ensemble +05 member [GTS tracker]
16.3 49.4 88.0 114.5 147.4 205.5
EE06
ECMWF Ensemble +06 member [GTS tracker]
14.1 42.7 69.8 95.1 136.6 161.7
EE07
ECMWF Ensemble +07 member [GTS tracker]
15.9 42.2 71.3 107.7 138.5 183.7

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE08
ECMWF Ensemble +08 member [GTS tracker]
15.3 41.3 64.9 105.6 136.4 205.0
EE09
ECMWF Ensemble +09 member [GTS tracker]
17.6 45.3 77.8 115.1 160.6 176.5
EE10
ECMWF Ensemble +10 member [GTS tracker]
15.6 38.1 83.6 121.6 148.9 174.7
EE11
ECMWF Ensemble +11 member [GTS tracker]
15.2 40.3 65.5 94.0 115.4 147.4
EE12
ECMWF Ensemble +12 member [GTS tracker]
13.8 44.8 85.0 130.3 153.4 159.3
EE13
ECMWF Ensemble +13 member [GTS tracker]
14.1 38.8 79.5 127.9 186.7 217.6
EE14
ECMWF Ensemble +14 member [GTS tracker]
16.5 45.0 86.3 119.0 168.3 248.2
EE15
ECMWF Ensemble +15 member [GTS tracker]
14.2 48.7 84.0 109.2 136.6 167.9
EE16
ECMWF Ensemble +16 member [GTS tracker]
15.9 42.5 73.5 113.7 167.8 206.2
EE17
ECMWF Ensemble +17 member [GTS tracker]
16.2 41.8 64.9 105.5 154.1 177.2

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE18
ECMWF Ensemble +18 member [GTS tracker]
15.4 42.5 82.1 116.6 149.5 187.5
EE19
ECMWF Ensemble +19 member [GTS tracker]
14.7 44.8 90.2 119.5 147.3 182.6
EE20
ECMWF Ensemble +20 member [GTS tracker]
16.1 41.9 75.0 116.4 184.4 237.1
EE21
ECMWF Ensemble +21 member [GTS tracker]
15.6 42.3 67.9 108.3 153.4 202.0
EE22
ECMWF Ensemble +22 member [GTS tracker]
16.7 42.8 70.4 118.2 155.0 214.4
EE23
ECMWF Ensemble +23 member [GTS tracker]
17.6 41.0 79.6 124.7 171.9 193.8
EE24
ECMWF Ensemble +24 member [GTS tracker]
13.9 48.5 91.3 138.8 183.3 186.3
EE25
ECMWF Ensemble +25 member [GTS tracker]
14.3 46.5 89.0 140.8 198.4 233.3
EE26
ECMWF Ensemble +26 member [GTS tracker]
14.6 38.6 76.6 121.2 163.3 190.3
EE27
ECMWF Ensemble +27 member [GTS tracker]
15.0 41.3 79.2 133.1 190.6 218.7

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE28
ECMWF Ensemble +28 member [GTS tracker]
14.6 43.8 75.2 108.1 147.0 192.3
EE29
ECMWF Ensemble +29 member [GTS tracker]
14.2 47.8 78.0 122.7 188.4 196.7
EE30
ECMWF Ensemble +30 member [GTS tracker]
15.3 47.1 85.3 129.7 161.7 161.6
EE31
ECMWF Ensemble +31 member [GTS tracker]
15.0 43.5 78.8 118.5 145.6 189.1
EE32
ECMWF Ensemble +32 member [GTS tracker]
14.0 42.2 68.9 113.0 139.5 170.9
EE33
ECMWF Ensemble +33 member [GTS tracker]
15.2 43.5 78.1 108.5 154.1 191.0
EE34
ECMWF Ensemble +34 member [GTS tracker]
14.6 39.1 66.4 103.5 124.2 140.7
EE35
ECMWF Ensemble +35 member [GTS tracker]
14.8 46.1 75.8 111.3 151.8 197.5
EE36
ECMWF Ensemble +36 member [GTS tracker]
16.3 43.3 84.6 114.9 154.3 181.3
EE37
ECMWF Ensemble +37 member [GTS tracker]
20.6 42.5 68.0 97.0 132.6 168.5

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE38
ECMWF Ensemble +38 member [GTS tracker]
15.9 40.4 69.2 106.4 163.2 203.9
EE39
ECMWF Ensemble +39 member [GTS tracker]
16.0 43.7 80.7 123.5 164.4 207.7
EE40
ECMWF Ensemble +40 member [GTS tracker]
14.2 38.7 75.8 120.7 163.9 207.4
EE41
ECMWF Ensemble +41 member [GTS tracker]
15.5 41.1 81.1 132.3 174.0 215.9
EE42
ECMWF Ensemble +42 member [GTS tracker]
15.2 46.3 85.6 130.7 163.0 186.0
EE43
ECMWF Ensemble +43 member [GTS tracker]
17.8 38.8 66.0 105.2 147.5 183.2
EE44
ECMWF Ensemble +44 member [GTS tracker]
15.4 44.3 91.8 150.4 189.0 200.5
EE45
ECMWF Ensemble +45 member [GTS tracker]
14.2 45.2 84.7 133.3 165.5 197.4
EE46
ECMWF Ensemble +46 member [GTS tracker]
14.5 41.7 81.8 126.4 162.8 189.8
EE47
ECMWF Ensemble +47 member [GTS tracker]
15.1 40.8 75.8 101.6 139.6 177.4

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE48
ECMWF Ensemble +48 member [GTS tracker]
15.8 43.8 81.9 124.0 155.7 187.0
EE49
ECMWF Ensemble +49 member [GTS tracker]
15.4 39.6 66.1 110.0 151.7 197.8
EE50
ECMWF Ensemble +50 member [GTS tracker]
16.7 43.9 80.4 129.4 168.1 193.3
EGR2
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 28.7 60.4 117.8 172.4 215.1
EGRI
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 27.8 53.6 103.7 163.6 202.4
EGRR
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker
11.8 24.0 49.4 91.3 151.2 190.4
HMNI
Previous cycle HMON, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 31.6 56.6 77.6 104.2 131.3
HMON
Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model
6.3 31.4 52.2 71.6 100.7 130.6
HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 33.2 61.0 102.5 152.1 177.7
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
3.9 30.1 52.7 87.8 140.9 176.1

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
JGS2
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 35.3 38.4 58.0 - -
JGSI
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 31.9 43.9 62.8 - -
JGSM
Japanese Global Spectral Model
21.5 35.3 50.1 63.9 - -
LGEM
SHIPS Logistic Growth Equation Model
3.6 33.4 52.6 75.2 104.0 146.4
NAM
North American Mesoscale model
13.7 33.1 62.7 90.2 - -
NAM2
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 24.0 - - - -
NAMI
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 35.9 66.8 98.2 - -
NGX
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
18.9 41.2 66.2 109.9 155.1 170.5
NGX2
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 39.3 79.8 131.8 164.3 169.9
NGXI
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 36.7 65.6 118.5 163.4 164.4

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
NVG2
NAVGEM (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 35.7 57.6 92.3 161.3 242.8
NVGI
NAVGEM (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 41.7 81.0 133.7 178.6 197.7
NVGM
Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)
20.4 49.4 80.6 124.8 173.8 201.0
OCD5
CLP5 (track) and DSF5 (intensity) models merged
0 87.9 187.4 269.0 350.4 438.1
OFCI
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast, in ATCF system and not from advisory data (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 30.3 51.8 76.0 97.4 132.0
OFCL
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0.5 27.0 41.3 62.8 87.2 119.1
RVCN
R34 Wind Radii Consensus (For 2017 consensus composition: AHNI / EMXI / HHFI)
0 29.0 48.1 72.0 104.7 133.7
RYOC
Forecaster Created Consensus Guidance (any model combination)
0 23.2 61.4 79.8 92.1 81.8
SHIP
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
3.6 33.4 52.6 75.2 104.0 146.4
TABD
Trajectory and Beta Model, deep layer (NHC)
0 49.6 74.6 110.4 164.7 200.9

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
TABM
Trajectory and Beta Model, medium layer (NHC)
0 43.1 70.1 89.6 128.4 177.4
TABS
Trajectory and Beta Model, shallow layer (NHC)
0 86.3 95.3 102.4 148.8 175.5
TCLP
Trajectory CLImatology and PERsistance (CLIPER) model 7-day
0 92.1 201.9 300.3 389.7 470.6
TCOA
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of all: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI)
0 24.7 45.7 82.2 118.5 140.0
TCOE
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of all: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI)
0 24.7 45.7 82.2 118.5 140.0
TCON
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of all: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI)
0 24.7 45.7 82.2 118.5 140.0
TVCA
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI)
0 28.0 47.2 68.7 94.1 115.9
TVCE
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI / NGPI)
0 28.0 47.2 68.7 94.1 115.9
TVCN
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI)
0 28.0 47.2 68.7 94.1 115.9
TVCX
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXIx2 / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI)
0 28.9 46.4 65.5 89.1 112.9

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
TVCY
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of at least two of: AVNIx2 / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI / EMXIx2 / CTCI)
0 28.1 45.7 65.4 89.1 114.0
UKM2
UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 28.4 47.0 88.4 114.9 103.6
UKX
UKMET [GFS tracker]
19.3 27.0 50.0 89.6 149.3 189.1
UKX2
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 29.6 58.6 114.3 168.1 230.2
UKXI
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 26.7 50.3 97.6 155.6 204.6
XTRP
A simple extrapolation using past 12-hr motion
0 104.8 266.0 450.3 660.2 897.9

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr

Average 10.844.877.6114.8163.4210.7


Average Intensity Error

(in knots)




Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AEMI
GFS Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 10.6 19.0 25.0 26.2 23.5
AVNI
Previous cycle GFS, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 11.8 18.6 21.7 23.1 18.1
AVNO
NWS / Global Forecast System (GFS model)
9.6 16.0 19.5 20.5 22.7 19.9
CEM2
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 12.7 22.6 28.8 28.6 27.8
CEMI
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 13.0 22.2 28.3 29.7 29.4
CMC2
Canadian model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 12.3 20.7 26.7 28.3 28.1
CMCI
Canadian model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 10.8 19.1 26.1 31.2 32.0
COT2
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 12 hours)
0.2 10.6 18.7 18.3 20.8 15.7
COTC
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model)
1.5 11.1 16.6 19.6 20.5 16.3
COTI
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 7.4 16.8 22.0 20.5 17.4

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CTC2
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version) (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 10.5 26.5 20.0 16.0 9.5
CTCI
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 9.2 11.6 14.7 14.3 18.1
CTCX
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version)
1.4 11.6 12.4 15.0 16.2 14.4
DRCL
DeMaria Radii CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model
0.4 6.6 9.7 12.0 13.2 11.6
DSHP
Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
0 8.1 11.9 16.7 19.3 15.8
EGR2
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 11.6 20.1 25.2 28.6 32.8
EGRI
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 11.9 19.3 25.1 27.8 31.3
HMNI
Previous cycle HMON, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 9.6 11.9 15.3 17.0 15.0
HMON
Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model
1.2 11.2 11.6 14.1 17.8 14.3
HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 9.1 12.9 13.3 15.9 16.8

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
2.0 10.0 12.5 13.3 15.8 18.2
ICON
Intensity Consensus (For 2016, consensus of all: DSHP + LGEM + GHMI + HWFI)
0 7.8 11.3 14.1 17.3 14.0
IVCN
Intensity Consensus (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: HWFI / CTCI / DSHP / LGEM)
0 7.7 11.1 13.5 16.7 14.6
IVCX 0 7.4 10.8 13.3 16.5 13.9
IVRI
Intensity Consensus (Consensus of five: DHSP / LGEM / GHMI / HWFI / CTCI / RI?? (RI25 or RI30 or RI35 or RI40)
0 7.4 11.1 13.3 15.7 13.6
JGS2
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 6.3 10.4 15.5 - -
JGSI
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 7.5 12.0 15.3 - -
LGEM
SHIPS Logistic Growth Equation Model
0 8.5 13.1 17.1 19.4 17.2
NAM2
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 1.0 - - - -
NAMI
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 7.4 10.8 12.0 - -

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
NGX2
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 13.4 25.0 31.9 33.8 32.0
NGXI
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 12.7 24.6 32.7 36.3 34.3
NVG2
NAVGEM (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 15.5 24.2 30.6 27.0 23.8
NVGI
NAVGEM (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 11.7 22.4 31.0 33.4 30.9
OCD5
CLP5 (track) and DSF5 (intensity) models merged
0 10.4 16.9 22.7 25.7 19.9
OFCI
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast, in ATCF system and not from advisory data (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 6.7 10.3 12.9 13.5 11.4
OFCL
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0.2 6.4 9.7 12.4 13.3 11.7
RI25
Rapid Intensity Aid 25kts (24 hr RI Prob)
0 6.9 - - - -
RI30
Rapid Intensity Aid 30kts (24 hr RI Prob)
0 5.0 - - - -
RI35
Rapid Intensity Aid 35kts (24 hr RI Prob)
0 0 - - - -

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
RVCN
R34 Wind Radii Consensus (For 2017 consensus composition: AHNI / EMXI / HHFI)
0 8.8 13.8 15.1 18.9 18.3
RYOC
Forecaster Created Consensus Guidance (any model combination)
0 5.0 17.0 43.0 44.0 52.0
SHF5
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model 5-day
0 10.4 16.9 22.7 25.7 19.9
SHIP
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
0 8.1 11.9 16.7 19.3 15.8
TCLP
Trajectory CLImatology and PERsistance (CLIPER) model 7-day
0 9.5 15.9 19.4 20.1 22.4
UKM2
UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 4.3 6.0 9.7 6.0 7.0
UKX2
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 12.5 22.0 29.6 33.0 34.3
UKXI
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 12.3 22.0 28.6 33.4 35.6

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr

Average 0.39.316.020.322.521.2

Models with a zero hour intensity greater than 10 knots are not displayed above and are not calculated for the average row. This is not based on any official method and you can adjust this wind speed or even show all models in the options section. See our product description for more on why we do this.