Atlantic:
Hurricane Maria - 100 knots, Tropical Storm Jose - 50 knots, Low (Lee) - 25 knots

Single Run Model Error Table for the NHC Models for Tropical Storm Jose - 2017

A non-homogeneous comparison of early and late cycle models
Currently Selected Error Date: September 21, 2017 12:00 Z (Latest Available)
Model Error in a:
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Table

About This Product


Only models that were released in the NHC's "aid_public" directory are included here. This means that some models, including ones frequently used, are not included in this error calculation. Please also keep in mind that every storm is different. One model is not always best. Before using this product, consult our product description for methodology. It is important to understand how late cycle models appear in the below model error calculation. With the exception of when late cycle model error data for the 0 hour interval is processed in real time on our site, all model error interval data is associated with when it was initialized, not released. (Late cycle models are initialized 6 hours prior to being released.) For more about the 0 hour interval and how the error date compares to error hour intervals please visit our product description which contains a helpful table. It is extremely important that you know what each hurricane model is for before using this model error feature. Some models do not accurately forecast intensity and in this product these models are alongside ones that do attempt to accurately forecast intensity which can lead to very false conclusions. For example, GFS ensemble members should not be directly compared to a model like the HWRF when it comes to intensity.

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Single Run Position Error

(in nautical miles)




Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AC00
GFS Ensemble Control Member
6.0 13.9 26.1 112.1 97.1 174.4
AEMI
GFS Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 20.3 77.0 80.6 131.3 210.8
AEMN
GFS Ensemble Mean
6.0 18.5 30.2 131.3 150.4 225.6
AP01
GFS Ensemble +01 member
6.0 41.7 0 77.3 89.1 167.1
AP02
GFS Ensemble +02 member
0 0 60.4 149.4 144.0 174.3
AP03
GFS Ensemble +03 member
0 12.9 15.1 60.7 180.1 308.2
AP04
GFS Ensemble +04 member
7.6 39.0 7.6 61.7 102.8 311.2
AP05
GFS Ensemble +05 member
7.6 12.9 65.9 175.6 251.0 525.2
AP06
GFS Ensemble +06 member
0 26.1 65.9 218.5 120.9 237.9
AP07
GFS Ensemble +07 member
4.6 9.3 15.2 36.7 57.1 211.6

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AP08
GFS Ensemble +08 member
0 36.7 30.3 195.2 167.6 319.9
AP09
GFS Ensemble +09 member
4.6 11.0 83.4 95.8 84.3 178.6
AP10
GFS Ensemble +10 member
4.6 25.9 28.4 227.1 143.4 319.9
AP11
GFS Ensemble +11 member
0 37.6 33.1 88.9 228.1 54.9
AP12
GFS Ensemble +12 member
4.6 52.3 80.6 225.0 93.6 294.8
AP13
GFS Ensemble +13 member
6.0 23.9 23.9 217.0 252.8 334.8
AP14
GFS Ensemble +14 member
6.0 13.9 89.6 146.4 252.3 92.8
AP15
GFS Ensemble +15 member
6.0 18.4 58.5 99.8 140.1 301.2
AP16
GFS Ensemble +16 member
7.6 27.8 60.2 129.6 192.0 125.3
AP17
GFS Ensemble +17 member
4.6 42.9 15.1 19.5 318.6 528.7

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AP18
GFS Ensemble +18 member
6.0 65.2 15.2 120.8 121.6 171.1
AP19
GFS Ensemble +19 member
6.0 30.3 73.3 55.9 368.4 118.8
AP20
GFS Ensemble +20 member
6.0 65.1 79.7 320.0 125.4 246.9
AVNI
Previous cycle GFS, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 30.4 80.9 51.6 150.6 335.4
AVNO
NWS / Global Forecast System (GFS model)
6.0 13.9 33.1 84.1 155.5 355.7
CC00
Canadian model Ensemble Control Member
- 15.2 - 102.4 74.3 350.6
CEM2
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 30.2 163.6 188.8 369.4 348.1
CEMI
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
CEMN
Canadian model Ensemble Mean
- 30.2 - 154.7 332.7 314.8
CLP5
CLImatology and PERsistance model 5-day (CLIPER5)
- 131.2 173.4 416.8 439.4 217.6

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CMC
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canadian model)
- 19.5 135.2 162.2 197.0 451.7
CMC2
Canadian model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 47.8 152.9 138.5 324.3 237.6
CMCI
Canadian model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
COT2
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 12 hours)
- - - - - 226.7
COTC
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model)
4.6 7.6 80.9 - 225.6 -
COTI
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 38.9 107.7 - - -
CP01
Canadian model Ensemble +01 member
- 29.4 - 84.5 144.4 715.3
CP02
Canadian model Ensemble +02 member
- 28.4 - 173.1 103.3 311.2
CP03
Canadian model Ensemble +03 member
- 15.2 - 146.4 98.0 42.1
CP04
Canadian model Ensemble +04 member
- 88.7 - 290.5 618.4 705.5

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CP05
Canadian model Ensemble +05 member
- 51.6 - 85.5 425.6 131.8
CP06
Canadian model Ensemble +06 member
- 64.7 - 465.4 74.4 394.4
CP07
Canadian model Ensemble +07 member
- 18.6 - 420.9 296.8 313.0
CP08
Canadian model Ensemble +08 member
- 52.1 - 168.2 390.7 301.3
CP09
Canadian model Ensemble +09 member
- 27.8 - 72.3 65.0 239.6
CP10
Canadian model Ensemble +10 member
- 48.0 - 296.8 333.9 60.4
CP11
Canadian model Ensemble +11 member
- 0 - 316.1 857.9 634.9
CP12
Canadian model Ensemble +12 member
- 38.9 - 109.5 571.6 359.7
CP13
Canadian model Ensemble +13 member
- 19.5 - 43.4 523.4 265.7
CP14
Canadian model Ensemble +14 member
- 29.3 - 24.5 522.8 306.6

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CP15
Canadian model Ensemble +15 member
- 75.9 - 201.7 286.4 503.9
CP16
Canadian model Ensemble +16 member
- 53.9 - 81.4 478.1 208.9
CP17
Canadian model Ensemble +17 member
- 15.2 - 95.5 826.1 37.2
CP18
Canadian model Ensemble +18 member
- 71.6 - 98.3 286.4 693.5
CP19
Canadian model Ensemble +19 member
- 40.3 - 132.7 139.4 221.9
CP20
Canadian model Ensemble +20 member
- 75.2 - 154.3 206.1 120.9
CTCI
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 30.1 55.0 42.8 60.4 163.8
CTCX
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version)
0 - 32.9 92.2 84.9 188.8
DRCL
DeMaria Radii CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model
0 12.0 49.6 25.8 36.7 239.1
DSHP
Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
0 12.9 64.7 18.6 84.2 171.1

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
ECME
ECMWF global model Ensemble Control Member [GTS tracker]
- 39.0 78.9 - 111.0 67.5
ECMO
ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
- 28.4 70.4 - 92.8 22.1
EE01
ECMWF Ensemble +01 member [GTS tracker]
- 7.6 240.8 - 22.1 66.1
EE02
ECMWF Ensemble +02 member [GTS tracker]
- 61.5 81.2 - 27.8 294.6
EE03
ECMWF Ensemble +03 member [GTS tracker]
- 7.6 30.3 - 60.8 83.6
EE04
ECMWF Ensemble +04 member [GTS tracker]
- 65.1 65.1 - 80.6 39.0
EE05
ECMWF Ensemble +05 member [GTS tracker]
- 97.7 166.7 - 208.4 124.7
EE06
ECMWF Ensemble +06 member [GTS tracker]
- 40.9 40.4 - 141.4 15.1
EE07
ECMWF Ensemble +07 member [GTS tracker]
- 65.0 51.3 - 55.6 120.3
EE08
ECMWF Ensemble +08 member [GTS tracker]
- 19.5 65.0 - 47.9 323.3

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE09
ECMWF Ensemble +09 member [GTS tracker]
- 61.3 37.6 - 115.9 181.4
EE10
ECMWF Ensemble +10 member [GTS tracker]
- 28.4 114.8 - 51.3 35.3
EE11
ECMWF Ensemble +11 member [GTS tracker]
- 82.5 116.9 - 30.4 11.0
EE12
ECMWF Ensemble +12 member [GTS tracker]
- 15.2 40.6 - 168.2 60.5
EE13
ECMWF Ensemble +13 member [GTS tracker]
- 69.3 44.3 - 163.6 198.6
EE14
ECMWF Ensemble +14 member [GTS tracker]
- 33.1 116.2 - 114.4 186.9
EE15
ECMWF Ensemble +15 member [GTS tracker]
- 22.7 104.1 - 125.8 183.7
EE16
ECMWF Ensemble +16 member [GTS tracker]
- 66.0 120.5 - 150.6 132.2
EE17
ECMWF Ensemble +17 member [GTS tracker]
- 40.4 34.6 - 190.3 52.3
EE18
ECMWF Ensemble +18 member [GTS tracker]
- 30.3 102.4 - 120.1 278.9

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE19
ECMWF Ensemble +19 member [GTS tracker]
- 80.9 157.7 - 48.6 71.7
EE20
ECMWF Ensemble +20 member [GTS tracker]
- 28.4 28.4 - 60.5 28.4
EE21
ECMWF Ensemble +21 member [GTS tracker]
- 37.6 97.5 - 133.6 300.8
EE22
ECMWF Ensemble +22 member [GTS tracker]
- 61.5 83.6 - 100.5 419.0
EE23
ECMWF Ensemble +23 member [GTS tracker]
- 27.8 30.4 - 519.3 286.9
EE24
ECMWF Ensemble +24 member [GTS tracker]
- 52.3 130.6 - 292.0 363.6
EE25
ECMWF Ensemble +25 member [GTS tracker]
- 51.3 30.2 - 115.5 22.7
EE26
ECMWF Ensemble +26 member [GTS tracker]
- 30.3 125.1 - 95.9 222.3
EE27
ECMWF Ensemble +27 member [GTS tracker]
- 51.3 22.1 - 97.5 55.5
EE28
ECMWF Ensemble +28 member [GTS tracker]
- 28.4 137.6 - 99.8 194.9

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE29
ECMWF Ensemble +29 member [GTS tracker]
- 30.2 74.4 - 146.0 116.2
EE30
ECMWF Ensemble +30 member [GTS tracker]
- 47.9 48.4 - 141.4 31.4
EE31
ECMWF Ensemble +31 member [GTS tracker]
- 51.3 132.7 - 181.1 128.7
EE32
ECMWF Ensemble +32 member [GTS tracker]
- 30.3 12.9 - 48.3 166.1
EE33
ECMWF Ensemble +33 member [GTS tracker]
- 48.6 84.2 - 133.6 209.0
EE34
ECMWF Ensemble +34 member [GTS tracker]
- 41.1 46.7 - 12.0 87.7
EE35
ECMWF Ensemble +35 member [GTS tracker]
- 70.4 70.3 - 62.6 103.3
EE36
ECMWF Ensemble +36 member [GTS tracker]
- 7.6 178.9 - 205.8 186.9
EE37
ECMWF Ensemble +37 member [GTS tracker]
- 12.0 162.7 - 129.7 208.2
EE38
ECMWF Ensemble +38 member [GTS tracker]
- 61.5 30.4 - 146.2 132.8

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE39
ECMWF Ensemble +39 member [GTS tracker]
- 35.3 116.9 - 220.5 313.7
EE40
ECMWF Ensemble +40 member [GTS tracker]
- 37.5 70.4 - 52.3 194.1
EE41
ECMWF Ensemble +41 member [GTS tracker]
- 61.3 85.1 - 53.9 149.1
EE42
ECMWF Ensemble +42 member [GTS tracker]
- 30.3 96.0 - 165.4 282.3
EE43
ECMWF Ensemble +43 member [GTS tracker]
- 32.9 60.5 - 224.4 65.2
EE44
ECMWF Ensemble +44 member [GTS tracker]
- 39.0 78.9 - 486.0 251.2
EE45
ECMWF Ensemble +45 member [GTS tracker]
- 27.8 40.5 - 83.6 148.9
EE46
ECMWF Ensemble +46 member [GTS tracker]
- 65.1 167.4 - 237.6 50.0
EE47
ECMWF Ensemble +47 member [GTS tracker]
- 46.7 78.5 - 47.9 107.8
EE48
ECMWF Ensemble +48 member [GTS tracker]
- 32.9 106.7 - 121.8 197.8

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE49
ECMWF Ensemble +49 member [GTS tracker]
- 51.3 38.9 - 95.9 290.5
EE50
ECMWF Ensemble +50 member [GTS tracker]
- 30.3 127.7 - 132.7 282.7
EGR2
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 12.9 27.7 60.5 208.7 156.3
EGRI
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
EGRR
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker
- - 36.7 36.7 143.8 90.3
HMNI
Previous cycle HMON, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 18.6 73.2 48.0 178.6 219.8
HMON
Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model
0 45.3 75.5 135.0 114.0 204.1
HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 4.6 50.0 98.7 250.0 283.9
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
6.0 18.5 30.4 66.1 125.0 514.1
JGS2
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 - - - - -

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
JGSI
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 42.1 62.7 112.4 - -
JGSM
Japanese Global Spectral Model
11.0 23.9 98.7 139.8 - -
LGEM
SHIPS Logistic Growth Equation Model
0 12.9 64.7 18.6 84.2 171.1
NAM
North American Mesoscale model
7.6 13.9 36.7 101.1 - -
NAMI
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 41.1 62.4 45.3 - -
NGX
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
- 28.4 82.1 - 119.9 -
NGX2
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 19.5 71.3 - - 181.7
NGXI
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 - - - - -
NVG2
NAVGEM (Interpolated 12 hours)
- - - - - 181.7
NVGI
NAVGEM (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 37.0 251.7 - - -

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
NVGM
Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)
4.6 28.4 82.1 - 119.9 -
OCD5
CLP5 (track) and DSF5 (intensity) models merged
0 131.2 173.4 416.8 439.4 217.6
OFCI
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast, in ATCF system and not from advisory data (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 11.0 34.5 12.9 62.2 171.6
OFCL
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0 12.0 49.6 25.8 36.7 239.1
RVCN
R34 Wind Radii Consensus (For 2017 consensus composition: AHNI / EMXI / HHFI)
0 12.9 62.2 30.3 94.2 276.7
SHIP
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
0 12.9 64.7 18.6 84.2 171.1
TABD
Trajectory and Beta Model, deep layer (NHC)
0 45.9 107.2 110.2 169.9 464.6
TABM
Trajectory and Beta Model, medium layer (NHC)
0 47.6 42.8 13.9 144.3 312.2
TABS
Trajectory and Beta Model, shallow layer (NHC)
0 60.2 69.0 51.3 245.4 306.1
TCLP
Trajectory CLImatology and PERsistance (CLIPER) model 7-day
0 102.3 220.8 206.2 212.1 433.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
TCOA
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of all: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI)
0 12.0 48.4 38.9 64.7 236.2
TCOE
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of all: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI)
0 12.0 48.4 38.9 64.7 236.2
TCON
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of all: AVNI / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI)
0 12.0 48.4 38.9 64.7 236.2
TVCA
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI)
0 18.6 51.3 25.8 33.3 217.8
TVCE
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI / NGPI)
0 18.6 51.3 25.8 33.3 217.8
TVCN
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI)
0 18.6 51.3 25.8 33.3 217.8
TVCX
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXIx2 / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI)
0 12.9 55.1 22.7 18.0 218.5
TVCY
Consensus Track Guidance (For 2016, consensus of at least two of: AVNIx2 / EGRI / GHMI / HWFI / EMXIx2 / CTCI)
0 18.6 59.0 25.8 30.3 233.2
UKM2
UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
- - - - 209.2 -
UKX
UKMET [GFS tracker]
- 15.2 36.7 36.7 139.3 90.3

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
UKX2
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 15.2 30.4 66.0 204.1 270.6
UKXI
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
XTRP
A simple extrapolation using past 12-hr motion
0 96.3 273.5 211.1 344.6 882.4

Average 2.036.476.4119.6177.1230.7


Single Run Intensity Error

(in knots)




Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AC00
GFS Ensemble Control Member
-8.0 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 -7.0 -2.0
AEMI
GFS Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 1.0 11.0 14.0 15.0 11.0
AEMN
GFS Ensemble Mean
-8.0 -5.0 0 -5.0 -7.0 -4.0
AP01
GFS Ensemble +01 member
-9.0 -4.0 3.0 -6.0 -14.0 -11.0
AP02
GFS Ensemble +02 member
-7.0 -4.0 0 -13.0 -7.0 -9.0
AP03
GFS Ensemble +03 member
-7.0 -6.0 2.0 -1.0 1.0 8.0
AP04
GFS Ensemble +04 member
-6.0 -6.0 0 -4.0 -10.0 -7.0
AP05
GFS Ensemble +05 member
-10.0 -2.0 -2.0 0 0 3.0
AP06
GFS Ensemble +06 member
-8.0 -7.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 3.0
AP07
GFS Ensemble +07 member
-9.0 -3.0 0 -2.0 -6.0 -1.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AP08
GFS Ensemble +08 member
-6.0 -8.0 -3.0 -3.0 -13.0 7.0
AP09
GFS Ensemble +09 member
-9.0 -5.0 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 4.0
AP10
GFS Ensemble +10 member
-9.0 -3.0 0 -2.0 -4.0 -10.0
AP11
GFS Ensemble +11 member
-8.0 -5.0 2.0 -3.0 0 -14.0
AP12
GFS Ensemble +12 member
-10.0 -6.0 6.0 -7.0 -11.0 5.0
AP13
GFS Ensemble +13 member
-8.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -14.0 -10.0
AP14
GFS Ensemble +14 member
-6.0 -6.0 -1.0 -14.0 -7.0 -4.0
AP15
GFS Ensemble +15 member
-9.0 -3.0 2.0 -12.0 -3.0 -3.0
AP16
GFS Ensemble +16 member
-9.0 -5.0 -2.0 -6.0 -23.0 -14.0
AP17
GFS Ensemble +17 member
-8.0 -6.0 0 -6.0 3.0 -2.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
AP18
GFS Ensemble +18 member
-8.0 -7.0 -3.0 -5.0 -3.0 -5.0
AP19
GFS Ensemble +19 member
-8.0 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 -5.0 -18.0
AP20
GFS Ensemble +20 member
-7.0 -8.0 -1.0 0 -6.0 -3.0
AVNI
Previous cycle GFS, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 1.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 -3.0
AVNO
NWS / Global Forecast System (GFS model)
-9.0 -3.0 2.0 2.0 -10.0 4.0
CC00
Canadian model Ensemble Control Member
- -13.0 - -11.0 -16.0 -23.0
CEM2
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 4.0 12.0 14.0 27.0 14.0
CEMI
Canadian model Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
CEMN
Canadian model Ensemble Mean
- -11.0 - -8.0 -7.0 -11.0
CMC
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canadian model)
- -9.0 -11.0 -8.0 -8.0 -5.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CMC2
Canadian model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 0 14.0 10.0 19.0 -3.0
CMCI
Canadian model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
COT2
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 12 hours)
- - - - - -3.0
COTC
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model)
0 -6.0 -8.0 - -13.0 -
COTI
NRL COAMPS-TC model (Navy Regional Hurricane Model) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 -4.0 10.0 - - -
CP01
Canadian model Ensemble +01 member
- -15.0 - -11.0 -8.0 -10.0
CP02
Canadian model Ensemble +02 member
- -14.0 - -10.0 -11.0 -16.0
CP03
Canadian model Ensemble +03 member
- -13.0 - -14.0 -11.0 -16.0
CP04
Canadian model Ensemble +04 member
- -8.0 - 0 0 -3.0
CP05
Canadian model Ensemble +05 member
- -3.0 - -6.0 1.0 -8.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CP06
Canadian model Ensemble +06 member
- -13.0 - -12.0 -8.0 -11.0
CP07
Canadian model Ensemble +07 member
- -6.0 - -6.0 -7.0 -14.0
CP08
Canadian model Ensemble +08 member
- -11.0 - -3.0 -3.0 7.0
CP09
Canadian model Ensemble +09 member
- -5.0 - -9.0 -8.0 -13.0
CP10
Canadian model Ensemble +10 member
- -16.0 - -6.0 -9.0 -12.0
CP11
Canadian model Ensemble +11 member
- -8.0 - -2.0 -7.0 -10.0
CP12
Canadian model Ensemble +12 member
- -5.0 - -10.0 -3.0 -13.0
CP13
Canadian model Ensemble +13 member
- -9.0 - -4.0 -6.0 -12.0
CP14
Canadian model Ensemble +14 member
- -16.0 - -18.0 0 -11.0
CP15
Canadian model Ensemble +15 member
- -18.0 - -3.0 -15.0 -25.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
CP16
Canadian model Ensemble +16 member
- -12.0 - -12.0 -4.0 -12.0
CP17
Canadian model Ensemble +17 member
- -14.0 - -8.0 -12.0 -8.0
CP18
Canadian model Ensemble +18 member
- -12.0 - -14.0 -9.0 -12.0
CP19
Canadian model Ensemble +19 member
- -11.0 - -8.0 -14.0 -15.0
CP20
Canadian model Ensemble +20 member
- -14.0 - -10.0 -5.0 -7.0
CTCI
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version) (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 -7.0 -4.0 -10.0 -11.0 -7.0
CTCX
NRL COAMPS-TC 5km model (experimental version)
0 - -5.0 -9.0 -17.0 -2.0
DRCL
DeMaria Radii CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model
0 0 0 0 5.0 0
DSHP
Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
0 -3.0 1.0 -6.0 -7.0 4.0
ECME
ECMWF global model Ensemble Control Member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 3.1 - -3.9 2.1

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
ECMO
ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
- -5.1 -3.0 - -10.0 -6.1
EE01
ECMWF Ensemble +01 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 -1.0 - -3.0 3.1
EE02
ECMWF Ensemble +02 member [GTS tracker]
- 0.9 3.1 - -3.9 -25.9
EE03
ECMWF Ensemble +03 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 -2.0 - 4.0 2.1
EE04
ECMWF Ensemble +04 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 -3.0 - -6.1 0
EE05
ECMWF Ensemble +05 member [GTS tracker]
- 3.1 3.1 - -1.0 -7.0
EE06
ECMWF Ensemble +06 member [GTS tracker]
- -10.0 2.1 - -10.9 0.9
EE07
ECMWF Ensemble +07 member [GTS tracker]
- 4.0 2.1 - 0 17.1
EE08
ECMWF Ensemble +08 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.0 -5.1 - -9.0 4.0
EE09
ECMWF Ensemble +09 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 3.1 - -10.0 -2.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE10
ECMWF Ensemble +10 member [GTS tracker]
- -7.0 0 - -2.0 -3.0
EE11
ECMWF Ensemble +11 member [GTS tracker]
- 3.1 2.1 - -3.9 -1.0
EE12
ECMWF Ensemble +12 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 3.1 - -17.0 -1.0
EE13
ECMWF Ensemble +13 member [GTS tracker]
- 10.1 0.9 - -20.1 0.9
EE14
ECMWF Ensemble +14 member [GTS tracker]
- -6.1 0.9 - 3.1 -3.0
EE15
ECMWF Ensemble +15 member [GTS tracker]
- -6.1 0.9 - 9.1 -3.9
EE16
ECMWF Ensemble +16 member [GTS tracker]
- 0.9 -3.0 - -10.9 16.1
EE17
ECMWF Ensemble +17 member [GTS tracker]
- 0 -2.0 - 0.9 9.1
EE18
ECMWF Ensemble +18 member [GTS tracker]
- 0 10.1 - -2.0 -17.9
EE19
ECMWF Ensemble +19 member [GTS tracker]
- 7.0 9.1 - -1.0 6.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE20
ECMWF Ensemble +20 member [GTS tracker]
- 0 0.9 - -10.0 -2.0
EE21
ECMWF Ensemble +21 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 2.1 - 2.1 -12.1
EE22
ECMWF Ensemble +22 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.0 0.9 - -3.0 2.1
EE23
ECMWF Ensemble +23 member [GTS tracker]
- -5.1 0.9 - 7.0 14.0
EE24
ECMWF Ensemble +24 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 -3.9 - -14.0 -15.0
EE25
ECMWF Ensemble +25 member [GTS tracker]
- 0 2.1 - 7.9 3.1
EE26
ECMWF Ensemble +26 member [GTS tracker]
- -7.0 10.1 - -1.0 7.0
EE27
ECMWF Ensemble +27 member [GTS tracker]
- -5.1 -1.0 - 3.1 0
EE28
ECMWF Ensemble +28 member [GTS tracker]
- -1.0 -3.0 - 0.9 -15.0
EE29
ECMWF Ensemble +29 member [GTS tracker]
- -5.1 0 - -3.9 0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE30
ECMWF Ensemble +30 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 -5.1 - -2.0 2.1
EE31
ECMWF Ensemble +31 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 2.1 - -21.0 -10.0
EE32
ECMWF Ensemble +32 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 0.9 - 3.1 19.0
EE33
ECMWF Ensemble +33 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 -5.1 - -2.0 18.0
EE34
ECMWF Ensemble +34 member [GTS tracker]
- -6.1 4.0 - -7.0 -20.1
EE35
ECMWF Ensemble +35 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 0.9 - -7.0 -5.1
EE36
ECMWF Ensemble +36 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 2.1 - 2.1 -5.1
EE37
ECMWF Ensemble +37 member [GTS tracker]
- 0 4.0 - -7.0 -5.1
EE38
ECMWF Ensemble +38 member [GTS tracker]
- 6.0 0 - 0.9 -10.0
EE39
ECMWF Ensemble +39 member [GTS tracker]
- -1.0 -3.0 - -6.1 -12.1

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE40
ECMWF Ensemble +40 member [GTS tracker]
- -1.0 -1.0 - -10.9 21.9
EE41
ECMWF Ensemble +41 member [GTS tracker]
- -7.0 0.9 - -3.9 -10.0
EE42
ECMWF Ensemble +42 member [GTS tracker]
- 6.0 0.9 - -2.0 -12.1
EE43
ECMWF Ensemble +43 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 -1.0 - -5.1 4.0
EE44
ECMWF Ensemble +44 member [GTS tracker]
- 2.1 -3.0 - -6.1 -20.1
EE45
ECMWF Ensemble +45 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 -2.0 - -8.0 18.0
EE46
ECMWF Ensemble +46 member [GTS tracker]
- 0.9 2.1 - -7.0 2.1
EE47
ECMWF Ensemble +47 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 0 - -10.0 2.1
EE48
ECMWF Ensemble +48 member [GTS tracker]
- -2.0 -6.1 - 0.9 -7.0
EE49
ECMWF Ensemble +49 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.9 -7.0 - 17.1 20.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
EE50
ECMWF Ensemble +50 member [GTS tracker]
- -3.0 16.1 - -17.0 -6.1
EGR2
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 -2.0 -1.0 -10.0 -3.0 -8.0
EGRI
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -
EGRR
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker
- - -6.0 -7.0 -4.0 -10.0
HMNI
Previous cycle HMON, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 -6.0 -5.0 -3.0 9.0 12.0
HMON
Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model
0 -8.0 -5.0 -9.0 -4.0 5.0
HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -1.0 -5.0
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
-3.0 -8.0 -6.0 -5.0 -9.0 9.0
ICON
Intensity Consensus (For 2016, consensus of all: DSHP + LGEM + GHMI + HWFI)
0 -3.0 -1.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0
IVCN
Intensity Consensus (For 2017, consensus of at least two of: HWFI / CTCI / DSHP / LGEM)
0 -3.0 -2.0 -6.0 -5.0 -3.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
IVCX 0 -4.0 -2.0 -5.0 -2.0 0
IVRI
Intensity Consensus (Consensus of five: DHSP / LGEM / GHMI / HWFI / CTCI / RI?? (RI25 or RI30 or RI35 or RI40)
0 -3.0 -2.0 -6.0 -5.0 -3.0
JGS2
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 - - - - -
JGSI
Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 1.0 14.0 14.0 - -
JGSM
Japanese Global Spectral Model
-8.0 -7.0 -8.0 -5.0 - -
LGEM
SHIPS Logistic Growth Equation Model
0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
NAM
North American Mesoscale model
-9.0 -6.0 -9.0 -12.0 - -
NAMI
NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 -3.0 10.0 5.0 - -
NGX
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
- -3.0 2.0 - -4.0 -
NGX2
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 6.0 20.0 - - -8.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
NGXI
NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours) - 2013 and later (previously version of NOGAPS)
0 - - - - -
NVG2
NAVGEM (Interpolated 12 hours)
- - - - - -9.0
NVGI
NAVGEM (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 6.0 13.0 - - -
NVGM
Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)
-10.0 -3.0 2.0 - -4.0 -
OCD5
CLP5 (track) and DSF5 (intensity) models merged
0 3.0 16.0 7.0 9.0 6.0
OFCI
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast, in ATCF system and not from advisory data (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 -3.0 -1.0 -5.0 8.0 -5.0
OFCL
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0 5.0 0 0 5.0 0
RVCN
R34 Wind Radii Consensus (For 2017 consensus composition: AHNI / EMXI / HHFI)
0 0 2.0 -3.0 0 -2.0
SHF5
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model 5-day
0 3.0 16.0 7.0 9.0 6.0
SHIP
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
0 -3.0 1.0 -6.0 -7.0 4.0

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr
TCLP
Trajectory CLImatology and PERsistance (CLIPER) model 7-day
0 -3.0 -14.0 -13.0 -12.0 -23.0
UKM2
UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
- - - - -3.0 -
UKX
UKMET [GFS tracker]
- -9.0 -9.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0
UKX2
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
0 3.0 9.0 5.0 15.0 14.0
UKXI
UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
0 - - - - -

Model Name

0hr
Day 1
24hr
Day 2
48hr
Day 3
72hr
Day 4
96hr
Day 5
120hr

Average 3.45.14.06.77.08.2

Models with a zero hour intensity greater than 10 knots are not displayed above and are not calculated for the average row. This is not based on any official method and you can adjust this wind speed or even show all models in the options section. See our product description for more on why we do this.