East Pacific:
Hurricane Hilary - 65 knots, Tropical Storm Irwin - 50 knots, Low (Greg) - 25 knots

Average Model Error Chart for the NHC Models for Low (Greg) - 2017

A non-homogeneous comparison of early and late cycle models
Currently Selected Error Date: July 28, 2017 0:00 Z (Latest Available)
Model Error in a:
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About This Product


Only models that were released in the NHC's "aid_public" directory are included here. This means that some models, including ones frequently used, are not included in this error calculation. Please also keep in mind that every storm is different. One model is not always best. Before using this product, consult our product description for methodology. It is important to understand how late cycle models appear in the below model error calculation. With the exception of when late cycle model error data for the 0 hour interval is processed in real time on our site, all model error interval data is associated with when it was initialized, not released. (Late cycle models are initialized 6 hours prior to being released.) For more about the 0 hour interval and how the error date compares to error hour intervals please visit our product description which contains a helpful table. It is extremely important that you know what each hurricane model is for before using this model error feature. Some models do not accurately forecast intensity and in this product these models are alongside ones that do attempt to accurately forecast intensity which can lead to very false conclusions. For example, GFS ensemble members should not be directly compared to a model like the HWRF when it comes to intensity.

Release Date:

Error Type:


Average Position Error



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Average Intensity Error



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