Best Performing Models

  • Model Ranking:
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  • Default Models:
  • BAMM
  • LBAR

Best Performing Models in Google Earth: North Atlantic | Eastern North Pacific | Central North Pacific

This page contains the best performing National Hurricane Center (NHC) models, in terms of forecasting the track of a storm, as determined by our system in real time using criteria that is specific to how long a storm has been active. This criteria is not based on any official method. The model error calculation is storm specific and is a non-homogeneous comparison of early and/or late cycle models. There is only a small subset of the best performing models ranked in the mapping. Intensity error is not factored into the ranking unless there is a tie between multiple models' position error.

Only models that were released in the NHC's "aid_public" directory or the ECMWF's site, when available, are ever included in the mapping. This means that some models, including ones frequently used, are not included in this ranking. Model error data will not appear on the map above if models have not been released recently.

The ranking uses a small number of error cases to pick up on how well a model is performing recently for a specific storm. When there are multiple storms the model data from one storm may be from a different date than the model data for another storm. Each storm has different criteria going into the model error calculation. For additional information on the criteria used for ranking the models for each specific storm click on a model line.

The following models are excluded from this calculation: AC00, AN01, AN02, AN03, AN04, AN05, AP01, AP02, AP03, AP04, AP05, AP06, AP07, AP08, AP09, AP10, AP11, AP12, AP13, AP14, AP15, AP16, AP17, AP18, AP19, AP20, CC00, CLP5, CP01, CP02, CP03, CP04, CP05, CP06, CP07, CP08, CP09, CP10, CP11, CP12, CP13, CP14, CP15, CP16, CP17, CP18, CP19, CP20, EC00, ECME, EE01, EE02, EE03, EE04, EE05, EE06, EE07, EE08, EE09, EE10, EE11, EE12, EE13, EE14, EE15, EE16, EE17, EE18, EE19, EE20, EE21, EE22, EE23, EE24, EE25, EE26, EE27, EE28, EE29, EE30, EE31, EE32, EE33, EE34, EE35, EE36, EE37, EE38, EE39, EE40, EE41, EE42, EE43, EE44, EE45, EE46, EE47, EE48, EE49, EE50, EN01, EN02, EN03, EN04, EN05, EN06, EN07, EN08, EN09, EN10, EN11, EN12, EN13, EN14, EN15, EN16, EN17, EN18, EN19, EN20, EN21, EN22, EN23, EN24, EN25, EP01, EP02, EP03, EP04, EP05, EP06, EP07, EP08, EP09, EP10, EP11, EP12, EP13, EP14, EP15, EP16, EP17, EP18, EP19, EP20, EP21, EP22, EP23, EP24, EP25, G002, G00I, G012, G01I, G022, G02I, G032, G03I, G042, G04I, G052, G05I, G062, G06I, G072, G07I, G082, G08I, G092, G09I, G102, G10I, G112, G11I, G122, G12I, G132, G13I, G142, G14I, G152, G15I, G162, G16I, G172, G17I, GP00, GP01, GP02, GP03, GP04, GP05, GP06, GP07, GP08, GP09, GP10, GP11, GP12, GP13, GP14, GP15, GP16, GP17, KCL5, KSHP, SHIP, UE00, UE01, UE02, UE03, UE04, UE05, UE06, UE07, UE08, UE09, UE10, UE11, UE12, UE13, UE14, UE15, UE16, UE17, UE18, UE19, UE20, UE21, UE22 and UE23

For a listing of most model names, click here.