AXNT20 KNHC 181241

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
841 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.


A tropical wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is along 27W from 
04N-19N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is in the vicinity of the wave. 

A tropical wave extends from 30N43W to 18N42W, moving SW at 25-30
kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated 
over the NE Atlantic. The wave is traveling through a dry 
environment, and no convection is noted. 

A tropical wave is along 57W from 24N southward, moving west at 
10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on 
satellite imagery. Scattered showers are present near the wave 
axis mainly from 20N-24N between 54W-56W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 26N 
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered 
showers near and over Puerto Rico, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. 
Along most of the wave axis, dry air over the Caribbean is 
preventing any convection at this time.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near Senegal 
13N16W to 09N24W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to the coast of 
South America near 01N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in 
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection are seen
from 04N-08N between 28W-44W and also along the coast of Sierra
Leone and Guinea. 


Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1018 mb surface high centered near Central FL. 
Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf and central Gulf. 10-15 kt 
SE winds are over the far W and SW Gulf. Scattered showers and 
tstorms are in the far NE Gulf just offshore the Florida Big Bend.
Isolated showers and tstorms are also been enhance by the 
tropical wave near 89W in the Bay of Campeche and NW portion of 
the Yucatan Peninsula.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast 
through Sun night before it weakens Monday. Gentle to moderate 
east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, 
except fresh to occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. 


Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the 
Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Tropical 
Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the 

Upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean. GOES-16 low and
mid level water vapor channels indicate the presence of dry air 
over much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. This does not 
include the Windward Islands, where moisture is leading to 
scattered showers and tstorms from 10N-15N between 57W-64W. The 
western Caribbean is somewhat more moist, with scattered tstorms 
noted over western Cuba. ASCAT data indicates strong trade winds 
south of 13N between 72W-77W with mainly moderate to fresh winds
from 15N-13N in the central Caribbean extending into the Gulf of 
Honduras, and gentle to moderate on the eastern Caribbean. 

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast 
period. Gale force winds will prevail along the Coast of Colombia 
tonight into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Honduras each night.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the 
waves traversing the basin. 

Scattered showers and tstorms cover the W Atlantic to the west 
into the Bahamas. Remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad
1030 mb high centered near 36N25W. 

A high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds through Mon night. Winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and 
Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours. 

For additional information please visit