AXNT20 KNHC 181759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front will be along 31N74W 26N80W, in 12 hours, on Monday 
night. The forecast consists of near gale-force to gale-force NW 
winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward from the cold front 
westward. Expect on Monday night elsewhere from the cold front
westward: strong to near gale-force NW winds, and moderate to near
rough seas. Expect also from 29N northward between the cold front
and the line 31N62W 29N65W: strong SW winds and moderate seas.
 
The current conditions are: broad moderate to fresh anticyclonic 
surface wind flow, and slight to moderate seas, are from 60W 
westward. The cold front passes through 31N76W, beyond N Florida,
into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong, are from 26N80W 31N65W northward. 

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and 
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas 
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by 
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the 
Equator along 21W, to the Equator along 26W, to 04S36W.  
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
from 06N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through N Florida, to 27N90W, beyond the coast
of Mexico near 24N97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are
to the north of 26N82W 24N90W 20N96W. This cold front is the 
boundary that will move into the SW North Atlantic Ocean by Monday
night. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning is associated
with the cold front. 

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the cold front northward from
90W westward. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the coastal waters of SW 
Louisiana. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extending from northern Florida to NE Mexico near 
24N97W will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, 
Mexico this morning and exit the basin Tue morning. Fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight 
through Tue morning. Low pressure may form over the western Gulf 
on Thu, then track east- northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri 
dragging a cold front across the basin. Expect increasing winds 
and seas with this next frontal system along with possible 
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Light density smoke, 
originating from widespread fire activity in Mexico is over most 
of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are 
within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong
NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, cover the rest of the
waters that are between 64W and 78W...including in the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. 
Fresh to strong SE winds are from 20N southward from 82W westward 
in the NW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
elsewhere from 64W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are 
elsewhere.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 18/1200 UTC, are: 0.10 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This 
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong 
trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. 
Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a 
cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front push 
southward across the northwest Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern 
Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will 
continue near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning for Monday night/early Tuesday
morning, in the SW North Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through a 32N25W 1025 mb high pressure 
center, to 30N33W 28N54W, to the Bahamas near 23N75W, toward NW
Cuba. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward.

Rough seas are from 30N northward between 36W and 46W; and from 
09N to 25N from 30W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from 10N 
to 20N between 30W and 50W; from 20N northward from 20W eastward; 
and from 13N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are in 
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
within 1300 nm to the south of the line 31N21W 25N33W 19N50W. 
Fresh NE winds are from 16N southward from 50W westward. Fresh to 
strong SW winds are to the north of 28N72W 31N63W. Moderate or 
slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N78W to northeast Florida will 
reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken
as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. 
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind
the front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force tonight
into Tue, affecting mainly the waters N of 27N. The front will 
move east of the area on Thu. High pressure in its wake will 
quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to 
strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the 
forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward along a 
coastal front near northeast Florida.

$$
mt/gr