AXNT20 KNHC 222331

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N15W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to the coast of Brazil near 
02S44W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of
the ITCZ.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered over southeast U.S.A. As a result, fair weather 
covers the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate easterly winds across the whole basin.

High pressure will remain across the area through mid-week, then 
begin to slide eastward in response to a cold front that will move
across the central United States. The cold front will move over 
the far western Gulf early on Thursday, then slowly move across 
the rest of the NW Gulf through Thursday night and reach the far 
eastern Gulf by Friday evening. It will then become stationary 
and weaken to a through Saturday. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected with this frontal system.


Upper-level zonal westerly flow covers the Caribbean. Moderate 
trade winds cover much of the basin, except for fresh to strong 
in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. 
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the Greater
Antilles and adjacent waters.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean 
through Tuesday night. The trade winds will slowly diminish 
thereafter as the high pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, a cold
front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of 
Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend.


In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the basin near
31N69W to 25N73W, then transitions into a surface trough from that
point to 22N75W. Scattered moderate convection is along and 
within 150 nm east of the front mainly north of 25N. In the 
central Atlantic, a 1011 mb low is centered near 25N50W. A surface
trough extends from the low to 21N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted in the NE quadrant of the low mainly north 
24N between 42W-51W. Due to the pressure gradient between the 
1012 mb low and a high pressure centered north of the area,
moderate to fresh winds are depicted in scatterometer data over 
the northern semicircle of the low.

The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through
Wednesday. Low pressure may track across the southern United 
States or Gulf of Mexico late in the week, with its attendant cold
front moving off the southeastern United States coast by early
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty 
winds, associated with this system are expected to affect much of 
the northwestern part of the area Friday through Saturday night.

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