AXNT20 KNHC 231024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 10N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N26W to  
the Equator along 29W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is from 03N to 07N between the coast of Africa and 30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the entire Gulf of Mexico from 
southern Florida to 25N92W to southern Texas. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of
the stationary front. 

The stationary front will lift slowly northward and dissipate 
through Saturday. SE winds will increase tonight across most of 
the Gulf ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf by
Saturday afternoon, then move across the rest of the basin 
through Sunday evening. Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will 
return to the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean 
Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper 
level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across the central 
sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, into eastern Venezuela. 

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad anticyclonic 
wind flow over the northwestern half of the Caribbean Sea. Broad 
cyclonic wind flow, associated with an inverted trough, covers 
the southeastern half of the Caribbean Sea. 

The monsoon trough extends across northern Colombia and eastern 
Panama into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
showers are within 240 nm to the southeast of the monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea and the
Gulf of Honduras will diminish this weekend, as central Atlantic 
Ocean high pressure shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to 
strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N61W to 29N73W to just south of 
Lake Okeechobee in Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from
29N67W to 25N76W near the Bahamas. Precipitation: Broken to 
overcast multi-layered clouds are to the north of a line from 
32N50W to 25N60W to 23N80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
precipitation is within 180 nm to the southeast of the surface
trough.

A cold front passes across the Canary Islands, to 26N20W, 24N30W,
25N40W, to 30N52W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multi-layered
clouds and possible rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either side
of the cold front.

The stationary front across the SW North Atlantic will dissipate 
west of 70W this evening. A cold front will move east of northern 
Florida early Sunday morning, then weaken and move NE of the 
Bahamas through Monday night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop ahead of the front Saturday and Saturday night, then 
shift eastward over the northern waters through Sunday night. 
Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are possible 
east of the front. 

$$
Mundell