AXPZ20 KNHC 230219
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
002 UTC Tue Apr 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0150 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A surface trough extends from low pres 1010 mb centered near 
09N74W to 05N84W to low pres 1010 mb centered near 06N92W to 
05N99W. The ITCZ continues from 05N99W to 04N111W. The ITCZ 
resumes from 03.5N118W to 03.5N123W to 05N134W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present 
from 03N to 08N between 85W and 95W, from 09N to 12N between 117W
and 123W, from 08N to 10N between 123W and 128W and from 09N to 
10N between 132W and 139W. A surface trough that splits the ITCZ 
between 111W and 118W extends from 00N114W to 05N115W to 11N114W.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 06.5N to 09N between
113W and 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad high pressure ridge persists over the offshore waters 
west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and a low pressure trough over the Gulf of California is producing
moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters north of Cabo San 
Lazaro based on earlier scatterometer data and ship 
observations. NW swell associated with an old, now dissipated
frontal boundary will continue impacting the waters N of 27N and
E of 130W tonight and Tue with seas up to 8 ft west of Guadalupe
Island. Winds and seas will subside through the rest of the week
as the pressure gradient weakens over the region. 

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh gap winds over the northern
Gulf of California have diminished in the wake of an old frontal
boundary that dissipated earlier today. Otherwise, light to 
gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf through Fri with seas 
generally 3 ft or less.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A weak pressure gradient over southern Mexico
will result in variable, light to gentle winds across the region 
today through Fri. By late Fri night, fresh to strong N winds 
may develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds 
over the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue 
pulsing across the Gulf through early Tue. Winds will be 
strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the 
assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. The pressure gradient
will slacken by midweek with winds diminishing to fresh speeds 
by Wed, then becoming gentle to moderate for the rest of the 
week.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate N to NE breezes will persist 
across the Gulf of Panama this week with seas generally running 
3 to 5 ft in mixed SW swell and N to NE wind waves. 

Wave heights between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will
remain between 4 and 6 ft in S to SW swell as light to gentle 
winds prevail across the southern waters. By Fri, seas will build
to between 5 and 7 ft near the Galapagos Islands as another set 
of SW swell moves into the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends SE from 32N135W across the 
northern waters to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N106W.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh trade winds south of 20N and west of 130W. 
Corresponding seas are running 8 to 9 ft in the strongest trades 
with the highest seas near 140W. These conditions will abate as 
strong high pressure begins to weaken Tue through Thu in response
to low pressure approaching from the west. This will result in 
diminishing trade winds and seas subsiding below 8 ft for this 
region by Tue evening.

A set of long period NW swell previously generated by a cold 
front that crossed the northern Gulf of California last night 
will continue impacting the waters north of 27N and east of 130W.
Seas in this area already peaked between 8 and 10 ft this 
morning. Seas will subside through Wed as the pressure gradient 
in this area weakens and winds diminish. Elsewhere, S to SW swell
will produce seas to 8 ft generally south of the Equator and 
west of 110W tonight through Tue night. Looking ahead, another 
round of SW swell will move into the far southern waters Fri and 
Fri night with seas once again building to 8 ft.

$$
CAM