AXPZ20 KNHC 181511
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1510 UTC Thu Jul 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 92W is moving west around 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N within 180
nm of the wave axis.

A well-defined tropical wave with axis near 104W is moving west 
around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 15N within 240 nm east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development as
the wave moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week. Please see the latest 
eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP 
for more information.

A well-defined tropical wave with axis near 127W is moving west 
around 15 kt. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near
12N127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N
within 180 nm of the wave axis. Upper-level winds appear to be 
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression 
could form during the next two or three days while the disturbance
moves west-northwestward or northwestward. Please see the latest
eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP
for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 10N92W to 
09N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N106W to 07N110W to 12N125W, 
then resumes from 11N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N and east of
85W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm
north of the monsoon trough between 84W and 90W, from 14N to 19N
between 116W and 123W, and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ west
of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight scatterometer data across the Baja California offshore
waters showed light to gentle breezes over the region. Meanwhile,
fresh to strong winds were depicted over the southern waters a
couple hundred miles south of Acapulco in association with a 
tropical wave near 104W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough is 
supporting fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with seas likely reaching 8 ft. Fresh to strong 
winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
Sat morning, then diminish into early next week as high pressure
weakens over the Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh
to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo. These winds will persist through the weekend and into
early next week, with associated seas peaking around 8 ft each
morning. The monsoon trough crosses the offshore waters around
09N, and the latest satellite imagery and lightning data reveal
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the trough.
Winds in this region should remain gentle to moderate for the 
next several days. Seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will persist
south of the Galapagos Islands through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends from distant high pressure well NW of the region
across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
Scatterometer data from 06-07 UTC showed fresh to locally strong
NE winds south of the ridge over the waters from 13N to 26N west
of 130W. Corresponding altimeter data indicated seas were running
7-9 ft in this region. These trade winds will diminish to moderate
speeds Fri into Sat as the high weakens and the gradient relaxes
over the region. Elsewhere, combined seas will remain around 8 
ft in southerly swell over the far southern waters for the next 
couple days. 

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information
about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the
next several days.

$$
Reinhart