Sept 5th, 2015 after tropical storm Erika passed over Hispaniola just over a week ago it collapsed and this got me to thinking of how many past tropical systems have either missed or weakened while hitting Florida due to passing through the box below?
These land masses especially Hispaniola have mountains up to 10,000ft and when hurricanes pass over or very near they often weaken or suddenly change direction only to resume their previous motion afterwards. I went back 144 years going through the National Hurricane Center map archives to see how often this has happened. I picked 13 past storms that in my opinion were altered just enough to lessen the Florida impact or cause the storm to miss altogether. I tried to take wind shear into consideration but prior to the 1990s this data is not mentioned in the NHC archives so I can only extrapolate what may have happened under low to moderate shear. The list below is based on 13 subjective systems about once every 11 years on average these islands may save Florida from a hit or from much more damage.
1878 #5 Could have hit as cat 2 hit as Tropical storm.map
1886 #5 Missed Florida was moving N.W when sudden weakening caused a west jog could have hit as cat 2.map
1899 #2 hit as tropical storm could have been cat 2. map
1916 #7 hit as tropical storm could have been a cat 3. map
1958 Ella missed Florida was headed that direction suddenly weakening over East Cuba and changed direction could have hit as a cat 4. map
1963 Flora missed Florida tangled in mountains of east Cuba while stalling,looping,weakening probably front approaching to pull her N.E but had Cuba not been there would she have continued N.W faster?could have hit as a cat 4 not confident.map
1979 David kissed Palm Beach but had that track extrapolated to Florida with no land mass in way changing course possible cat 5 for Florida. David never fully recovered after interaction with land quite likely this could have been devastating for Florida.map
1998 Georges hit keys as cat 2 without all the direction changes over Greater Antilles could have hit Florida as a cat 4. map
2000 Debby dissipated over Antilles was progged by some models to be major in S Florida although it did have some SW shear could have hit as cat 3. map
2006 Ernesto had a direct path to Florida but land interaction kept him at bay as a tropical storm. map
2008 Gustav took a radical dip and reformation S.W after hitting Haiti had it maintained it’s original N.W path with no land in way could have hit Florida as a cat 3.map
2012 Isaac more than likely weakening over Haiti and east Cuba caused a westward shift could have been a cat 1 or 2. map
2015 Erika battled with wind shear but could have survived to make cat 1 in favorable conditions ahead if not for dissipating over Greater Antilles. map
So basically thinking an additional 6 majors for Florida with 3 potential since 1998 makes one realize how lucky Florida is to have these islands to it’s south and east. On another note there have been two impacts that may not have happened if the islands were not there, Inez in 1966 and Jeanne in 2004 may have caused these hurricanes to eventually hit Florida by radically changing courses. Most major hurricane impacts in Florida avoided this box so the next time a hurricane devastates the Greater Antilles our government should have no problem helping our neighbors to the south considering how much money and lives they may have saved…..Jim Williams
