Cancun, Mexico's History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Cancun most likely to be hit by a hurricane between August 31st and September 6th

Years within or near core

1873
1877br
1880
1880ts
1886tsbr
1887-2
1888
1890ts
1893
1895
1898tsbr
1903m
1909
1909ts
1911ts
1912ts
1913ts
1916m
1916tsbr
1918tsbr
1920tsbr
1921brm
1922
1933
1936ts
1938
1938brm
1938
1939ts
1942
1944br
1944
1947tsbr
1951m
1961
1967
1973ts
1975ts
1980m
1988m
1988ts
1995brm
1998tsbr
2003ts
2005brm
2005m
2008ts
2009br
2011ts
2020tsbr
2020ts
2020
2020br
2021br
2024br
2024tsbr

57 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (C storms most likely to impact the area)

Charlie
Carla
Debbie
Beulah
Eloise
Allen
Gilbert
Keith
Roxanne
Mitch
Claudette
Emily
Wilma
Dolly
Ida
Rina
Cristobal
Gamma
Delta
Zeta
Grace
Beryl
Helene

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 24, 41.82%
H = 33, 58.18%

only 20.37% of all tropical systems affecting Cancun are major hurricanes

Longest gap between storms

9 years 1952-1960

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 2.68 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for at least a few hours)

Once every 6.95 years. (22 hits)

Average years between direct major hurricane hits. (major hurricane in advisory upon passage)

Once every 21.86 years. (7 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

110 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2027

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 September 25th Tropical Storm Helene brushes to the east while moving north with 70 mph winds.

This area's hurricane history

1873 October 4th 105 mph while turning northeast.
1880 August 9th, 105 mph from the east-southeast
1887 July 25th 95 mph winds coming from the south-southeast
1887 again on September 17th 95 mph winds on nearly the same course from the southeast
1888 September 6th 80 mph from the east-northeast moves in just north
1893 September 28th 95 mph from the southeast
1895 August 26th 95 mph from the east-southeast just north
1903 August 13th, 120 mph from the east-southeast
1909 August 25th 105 mph from the east
1916 August 17th, 120 mph just north from the east-southeast
1922, 85 mph on October 18th from the east
1933 105 mph winds September 22nd to the south from the east-southeast
1938 August 13th 95 mph from the southeast
1942 August 27th 105 mph from the southeast
1944 90mph (HURDAT) September 20th from the east
1951 August 19th 130 mph to the south from the east-southeast
1961 September 7th, Hurricane Carla passes just east from the south-southeast with 105 mph winds
1967 September 17th Hurricane Beulah passes just south with 105 mph winds from the east-southeast
1980 Hurricane Allen passes to the north August 7th, with 185 mph winds from the east-southeast
1988 Hurricane Gilbert September 14th a category 5 hits with 165 mph winds the north tip of the Yucatan from the east-southeast as this area got hit hard.Tosse vessels on shore large storm surge took years to get tourism back. Satelite photo | Damage photo
2005, October 22nd, Hurricane Wilma passes over the area very slowly while moving north from the southeast & beginning the turn to the northeast. Hits with 130 mph winds & exits with 95 mph winds. Cancun was hammered for nearly 36 hrs by hurricane force winds with extensive damage. Reports in early 2006 indicate that beaches are a sliver of what they once were. Very few hotels in the beach communities are operational with the nights in the hotel zone labled as "ghostly". Official final report from NHC indicates roughly 100 mph sustained with gusts to 130 mph and 3 billion dollars in damage. Hurricane warning show | Hotel damage before & after | Satellite image of Wilma as a category 5 before landfall, strongest ever in the Atlantic basin as of 2005. | Animated radar (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Movie slide presentation of damage
2020 October 7th Hurricane Delta hits just south by 19 miles with 105 mph winds. Gusts's here reported at 106 mph. hit map

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......