Great Exuma Island, Bahamas' History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Great Exuma most likely to be hit by a hurricane between September 7th and September 13th

Years within or near core

1871br
1877-2ts
1882br
1883
1884br
1885tsbr
1887ts
1888br
1888ts
1891
1896br
1899m
1899ts
1901ts
1903
1908m
1908br
1919
1923br
1926-2m
1928ts
1928m
1931ts
1932ts
1932brm
1932m
1933tsbr
1933br
1933brm
1935ts
1936ts
1937ts
1938ts
1941br
1941tsbr
1942ts
1942br
1945m
1946ts
1949
1952m
1956tsbr
1960brm
1970tsbr
1973ts
1979br
1981ts
1995br
1996
1999brm
2001br
2004brm
2005ts
2011m
2012
2015m
2016m
2017brm
2020br

61 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (I storms most likely to impact the area)

Fox
Carla
Donna
Gilda
David
Arlene
Gert
Fran
Lili
Floyd
Michelle
Frances
Rita
Irene
Sandy
Joaquin
Matthew
Irma
Isaias

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 23, 37.70%
H = 38, 62.30%

only 28.33% of all tropical systems affecting Great Exuma are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

13years 1981-1995

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 2.51 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for at least a few hours)

Once every 8.5 years. (18 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 13.91 years. (11 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

116 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

2 years overdue

Last affected by

2020 July 31st Hurricane Isaias passes just south while moving northwest with 80 mph winds radar confirmed eye wall did not come onshore.

This area's hurricane history

1883 90 mph September 8th from the south 106 killed in bahamas passed just west of here
1891 August 23rd 95 mph from the east-southeast
1899 August 11th, 120 mph from the east-southeast
1903 September 10th, 75 mph from the southeast
1908 September 13th 120 mph from the southeast. Book reference page 370
1919 September 7th 110 mph from the east-southeast
1926 July 26th 140 mph winds from the southeast destroy approximately 90% of homes, 1000 left homeless. Nine deaths reported on island.
1926 September 17th, 150 mph from the east-southeast
1928 September 16th a hurricane with 155 mph passes just north the island from the southeast but only slight damage reported
1932 October 11th 120 mph from the southwest
1945 September 14th, 120 mph from the east-southeast just south
1949 August 25th 105 mph from the east-southeast just north
1952 October 26th, 115 mph winds just nort while moving east
1996 Hurricane Lili hits October 19th with 105 mph winds pressure 28.44 sustained winds in area recorded at 80 mph from southwest moving east-northeast at 23 mph moderate damage. NHC report
2011 August 24th, Hurricane Irene passes just north while moving west-northwest with 120 mph winds. There were unconfirmed reports of wind gusts to 115 mph in Moss town. Irene model history | Our coverage as it happened
2012 October 25th, Hurricane Sandy hits south part of island from the south while moving north with 105 mph winds. Sandy model history | Post NHC
2015 October 2nd Hurricane Joaquin passes just east of the island while turning north with 130 mph winds sustained hurricane force winds affected the southern Exumas. Extreme flooding and downed power lines were reported. NHC final report | Wind bar graph | Satellite shot
2016 October 6th, Hurricane matthew passes just south with 115 mph winds while moving northwest. Obs while passing | Radar animation Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School | Matthew timeline

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......