Ponce, Puerto Rico's History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Ponce most likely to be hit by a hurricane between August 31st and September 6th

Years within or near core

1876
1878ts
1883brm
1891
1893m
1896
1898ts
1899
1900tsbr
1901ts
1901tsbr
1909
1910
1916
1919ts
1926
1928m
1930m
1931br
1932m
1933ts
1938ts
1945tsbr
1956
1966brm
1967brm
1979ts
1981tsbr
1989brm
1996
1998
2004ts
2007subts
2011br
2013ts
2014ts
2015ts
2017brm
2017m
2020tsbr
2020ts
2021ts
2022

43 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (I storms most likely to impact the area)

Betsy
Inez
Beulah
Frederic
Gert
Hugo
Hortense
Georges
Jeanne
Olga
Irene
Gabrielle
Bertha
Erika
Irma
Maria
Isaias
Laura
Fred
Fiona

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 19, 44.19%
H = 24, 55.81%

25.64% of all tropical systems affecting Ponce are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

11 years 1968-1978

How often this area gets affected?

Ponce Brushed or hit every 3.56 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force wind gusts for a few hours)

Once every 9 years. (17 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 30.6 years. (5 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

104 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2026

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2022 September 18th Hurricane Fiona passes just south by 21 miles with 85 mph winds slowly moving west-northwest dumping very heavy rains.

This area's hurricane history

1876 September 13th 95 mph from the east reports of 19 killed but historians suspect the spanish government withheld death toll & damage info.
1891 August 20th 105 mph from the east-southeast just south hundreds killed
1893 August 16th, 115 mph from the southeast. Hit map
1896 August 31st 95 mph from the southeast
1899 August 8th San Ciriaco hurricane hits with 110 mph winds from the east-southeast. Winds at approach on southeast Puerto Rico were estimated at 140 mph. 3,369 deaths reported in Puerto Rico.Closest approach of eye to Ponce was 15 miles to the North.
1909 August 22nd, 90 mph to the south from the east-southeast
1910 September 6th, 95 mph just south from the east
1916 August 22nd, 80 mph from the east-southeast
1926 July 23rd, 80 mph many killed by a hurricane just south while moving northwest
1928 September 13th the san felipe hurricane swept across P.R from the southeast with 160 mph winds killing a preist named after the storm.The hurricane was just north of here & dumped over 30 inches of rain 312 killed. US president asking for help | Newspaper Article
1930, September 2nd, 115 mph to the south from the east-southeast
1932 September 27th 145 mph winds (HURDAT) from due east. Newspaper article
1956 August 12th hurricane betsy hits with 90 mph winds from the southeast
1996 September 10th, Hurricane Hortense hit southwest Puerto Rico with 80 mph winds from the southeast & large waves battered the south coast pressure 29.23 over 20 inches of rain in city of Guayama east of Ponce 19 killed 4 ft storm surge. NHC report
1998 Hurricane Georges to north with 110 mph winds heavy damage on entire island 2 billion dollars 12 killed September 22nd while moving west. Winds here reported at 75 mph, gusts to 100 mph. NHC Report
2017 September 20th Hurricane Maria hits just north by 24 miles at closest approach with 120 mph winds while moving northwest causing heavy damage. Death toll revised in 2018 to 2,975 for Puerto Rico to include those killed in the aftermath. Probabilistic tracks | Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Main models | Relief concert 5 former presidents attend | Our coverage upon approach | NHC report
2022 September 18th Hurricane Fiona passes just south by 21 miles with 85 mph winds slowly moving west-northwest dumping very heavy rains.At one point nearly the entire island was without power reports of heavy flooding & mudslides. Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Map closest approach to Ponce

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......