Saint Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands' History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Saint Croix most likely to be hit by a hurricane between September 14th and September 20th

Years within or near core

1871m
1876m
1878ts
1889
1891brm
1891ts
1893m
1894
1896br
1898ts
1899m
1900ts
1901-2tsbr
1909br
1910
1916ts
1916-2
1926tsbr
1928m
1930
1931ts
1931
1932
1933-2ts
1933tsbr
1938tsbr
1945tsbr
1947tsbr
1950ts
1956
1960brm
1966brm
1979ts
1981ts
1984tsbr
1989m
1995
1998
1999tsbr
1999m
2004ts
2008m
2011ts
2014tsbr
2015ts
2017brm
2017m
2019
2019ts
2020tsbr
2020ts
2022ts
2024tsbr

56 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (I storms most likely to impact the area)

Baker
Betsy
Donna
Inez
Frederic
Gert
Klaus
Hugo
Marilyn
Georges
Jose
Lenny
Jeanne
Omar
Irene
Bertha
Erika
Irma
Maria
Dorian
Karen
Isaias
Laura
Fiona
Ernesto

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 29, 51.79%
H = 27, 48.21%

24% of all tropical systems affecting Saint Croix are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

12 years 1967-1978

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 2.73 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for a few hours)

Once every 7.29 years. (21 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 17 years. (9 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

115 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2027

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 August 13th Tropical Storm Ernesto brushes north with 60 mph winds while moving west-northwest

This area's hurricane history

1871 August 21st to the north with 115 mph winds from the east-southeast. Hit map
1876 September 13th, 115 mph from the east. Hit map
1889 September 3rd, 105 mph from the southeast just north
1893 becomes major 115 mph winds while moving west-northwest August 16th (HURDAT2). Hit map
1894 October 13th, 95 mph from the south-southeast
1899, August 8th 145 mph hits just south from the east-southeast causing heavy damage. Hit map
1910 September 6th, 95 mph from the east
1916 August 21st, 95 mph from the east-southeast just north
1916, 110 mph October 9th, 963 mb implies winds of at 97 kt from the southern pressure-wind relationship. 95 kt is chosen for HURDAT at 18 UTC on the 9th, from the south
1928 September 13th, 155 mph hits causing major damage from the east-southeast just south pressure of 27.50 was recorded. US president asking for help
1930 September 2nd, 110 mph to the south from the east-southeast
1931 September 10th, 90 mph just north from the east
1932 September 26th, 110 mph just north from the east
1956 Hurricane Betsy hits with 90 mph winds on August 12th from the east-southeast
1989 September 18th, Hurricane Hugo hits with 140 mph winds from the southeast island is devestated. | Damage photos | Newspaper article | Article #2 | More damage photos | More photos
1995 September 15th, Hurricane Marilyn hits with 105 mph winds from the southeast causing very heavy damage pressure 28.32 gusts to 125 mph west side hit hardest. Disaster survey report
1998 Hurricane Georges hits with 110 mph just north from the east-southeast September 21st moderate damage here NHC report
In 1999 on November 17th Major Hurricane Lenny just south with 145 mph winds from the west-southwest causing moderate damage to the island.gusts to 112 mph reported here.| Lenny satellite
2008 October 15th Hurricane Omar passes just east coming from the south with 115 mph winds. A very small wind field only affected the east part of the island with hurricane force gusts but overall minor damage. Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) | Call ins to local radio show during passage
2017 September 19th Hurricane Maria passes just south while moving northwest with 170 mph winds at closest approach. Most still have no power or cell service 75 days after Maria hit. Sandy Point National Wildlife Refuge, St. Croix (XCRX) sustained 107 mph gust to 137 mph. Wind damage was evident across the entire island with many fallen trees, downed signs, roof damage and complete destruction of many wooden houses. Excessive rainfall generated significant flooding and mud slides across the island. Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Relief concert | NHC report
2019 August 28th Hurricane Dorian develops over island with 75 mph winds while pulling away mainly affecting east part of island. Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) NHC report

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......