St John's, Newfoundland's History with Tropical Systems(within 80 miles of island)

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871) Unless "significant", extratropical systems will not be noted. "?" indicates unknown at landfall.

St John's most likely to be hit by a hurricane between August 31st and September 6th

Years affected

1873
1880ts
1884ts
1886
1888xtropts
1890br
1891xtropstbr
1892extratropst
1893
1895tsbr
1899
1899xtropstbr
1908ts
1926xtropst
1932xtropstbr
1935xtropstbr
1937xtropst
1939extratroph
1946xtropstbr
1949xtropst
1950extratropstbr
1959xtropst
1962xtropst
1964xtropst
1969
1970xtropstbr
1973xtropstbr
1978brm
1985xtropstbr
1989tsbr
1995
1998xtropst
1999xtropst
2000ts
2001xtropts
2002xtropst
2005xtropst
2006extratrophbr
2006ts
2006xtropst
2007xtropst
2008xtropstbd
2009
2010
2011-2-extratropicalst
2012ts
2014br
2018xtrstbr
2020br
2021
2022 extropstbr
2024br

53 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (E storms most likely to impact the area)

George
Ella
Dora
Debbie
Gilda
Ella
Ana
Dean
Luis
Earl
Floyd
Leslie
Arthur
Ophelia
Isaac
Chantal
Bill
Igor
Maria
Ophelia
Leslie
Gonzalo
Chris
Epsilon
Larry
Fiona
Ernesto

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 38, 71.70%
H = 15, 28.30%

only 1.92% of all tropical systems affecting St John's are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

17 years 1908-1926

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 2.89 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force wind gusts for a couple of hours)

Once every 15.30 years. (10 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

80 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2027

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 August 20th Hurricane Ernesto brushes well south by 83 miles with 75 mph winds while racing northeast.

This area's hurricane history

1873 August 26th, 80 mph slowly moves into St Johns This was a deadly hurricane killing over 500 in Nova scotia & 100 in New Foundland.
1886 August 24th, 75 mph from the west-southwest
1893 a hurricane hits with 85 mph winds on August 18th from the west-southwest.
1899 September 14th 75 mph from the south
1939 October 18th extratropical storm hits with 75 mph winds from the south-southwest while dying down.
1969 Hurricane Debbie 80 mph August 24th passes just offshore from the south, this hurricane was cloud seeded earlier. NHC Wallet
1995 Hurricane Luis hits with 90 mph winds while racing north-northeast on September 11th. NHC Report
2009 August 24th Hurricane Bill hits with 75 mph winds while moving east-northeast at 40 mph. Minor damage reported but very high seas. Model performance
2010 September 21st Hurricane Igor hits coming in from the south-southwest moving northeast with 75 mph winds. Heavy flooding from 6 to 10 inches of rain, trees & powerlines down many without power. NHC Report
2021 September 11th Hurricane Larry passes just west by 49 miles while racing northeast with 80 mph winds. News report | NHC Report

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......