Jim's hurricane city predictions

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Sun, May 19, 2013 at 4:21 AM

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Jim's City Predictions

Since 2003 I have been making city predictions every June 1st for what cities and islands I think will be affected during the hurricane season which runs from June 1st through November 30th. I use a simple mathematical formula to calculate which locations are at a high threat or moderate threat by using past data going back to the late 1800s. There are several factors involved with making my picks so let me go over a few of them so you have a better understanding of my process. I usually wait until late May to start my calculations so that I have a good understanding of the upcoming environment for the season. The cities chosen are pulled from the 152 locations in the HurricaneCity database. The first important criteria is whether it will be above average, average or below average for Atlantic Basin tropical activity. A busy season can often result in certain areas being at high risk versus others. A slower season has a whole different set of cities that would make my top 20. The second criteria is considering whether a city or island is due or overdue for a named storm which you can see on any database city page. An overdue city would be higher on my list than one that is due and of course one that is not due would only make the list if a particular trend stands out. For those that think return rates do not matter consider that only 5 to 7% of the locations in the city database are overdue in any season. The third criteria is whether a location is due or overdue for a hurricane, which does not happen very often. The fourth criteria are for trends. For example, if a city like Miami has a trend of getting hit by a tropical storm followed by a hurricane strike 3 years later and this has happened several times, its high on the list and may be near the top even if it is not due or overdue. The fifth criteria are weather stats such as a history of a dry spell followed by a named storm etc; there are too many examples to list here. If your city is not predicted this does not mean you will not be affected. Every year there are always locations that will be hit that I do not pick, but if you are on the list, especially the top 5, it might be a good idea to be prepared.

My picks for the 2013 season released on May 15th for a named storm affecting certain areas. (subjective to wind fields) (yellowed locations indicate they were affected).
Video explanation of 2013 picks from May 15th

VERY HIGH THREAT....... Pascagoula,Mississippi .... Fort Walton/Destin,Florida .... Vero Beach,Florida .... Great Exuma,Bahamas .... Boynton beach,Florida
MODERATE THREAT....... Gulf Shores,Alabama .... Cape Hatteras,North Carolina .... Gulfport,Mississippi .... Sable Island,Nova Scotia .... Fort Pierce,Florida .... Havana ,Cuba .... Mobile,Alabama .... Pensacola,Florida .... Morehead City,North Carolina .... Manzanillo,Cuba .... Stuart,Florida .... Hollywood,Florida .... Cayman Islands .... Lake Worth,Florida .... Dauphin Island,Alabama
Ticking time bomb....... Boca Raton,Florida

Jim's past years predictions and the storms that affected the chosen locations

2003 top 5:

#1) Halifax NS (Juan), #2) Cozumel (Claudette), #3) Brownsville (Erika), #4) Oviedo DR (Odette), #5) Elizabeth City NC (Isabel)

2004 top 5:

#1) Ft Walton / Pensacola (Ivan), #2) Cape Hatteras (Gaston), #3) Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4) Cozumel (0), #5) Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan)

2005 top 5:

#1) Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2) Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3) Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4) Vero Bch (0), #5) Biloxi MS (Katrina) .... "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"

2006 top 5:

#1) Vero Bch (Ernesto), #2) Pascagoula MS (0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4) Mobile AL (0), #5) Cape Hatteras (0)

2007 top 5:

#1) Elizabeth City NC (Gabrielle), #2) Belize (Dean), #3) Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4) Antigua (0), #5) Martinique (Dean)

2008 top 5:

#1) St Martin (Omar), #2) Antigua / Guadeloupe (0), #3) Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake Worth (Fay), ticking time bomb = Morgan City LA (Gustav)

2009 top 5:

#1) Grand Bahama (0), #2) Cancun MX (0), #3) Bluefields Nicaragua (Ida), #4) Ft Lauderdale (0), #5) Pascagoula, MS (Ida)

2010 top 5:

#1) Vero Bch (0), #2) Ft Walton Bch (0), #3) Ft Lauderdale (Bonnie), #4) Pascagoula (0), #5) Boynton Bch (0)

2011 top 5:

#1) Boca Raton, FL (0), #2) Grand Bahama Isl (Irene), #3) Boynton Bch, FL (0), #4) Great Exuma,Bah (Irene), #5) Belize (Harvey)

2012 top 5:

#1)Cabo Corrientes, Cuba (west tip) (0), #2) Beaufort, S.C (0), #3) Key Largo, FL (ts Isaac br), #4) Spring Hill, FL (ts Debby br), #5) Merida, MX (0)