Model Listing
The following is not a complete listing of models, though it does contain many of the models that you will see released in the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) public model files. Some models listed below are used by the NHC but are rarely released into the public model file for a storm.
We use a variety of sources for the below data. The majority of the information below comes from the techlist file on NOAA's server, the NHC's annual verification reports, and the forecast model background and information page at the NHC (a page which has a lot of information about models). We only include extra information when it is provided specifically about that model. Even though some of the blanks could easily be filled in on some of the models, we chose not to unless the information was available specifically for that model in NHC documentation that we could easily find.
Sources for HFIP Stream 1.5 Models were found mostly here and the GFDL Ensemble here. Various other government and university sites were also consulted.
Some of the models below are deprecated, meaning they are no longer used. We include them in case our system generates historical data that may contain that particular model.
Models listed below that are a combination of other models, consensus models, could change at any time. If you are aware of any changes to those models, please let us know.
You can select a model name or type in the list below to view the models associated with it. This page is automatically created which is why it is not formatted in the most friendly way possible.
BAM
Beta and Advection model
BAMS - Beta and Advection model, shallow layer (NHC)
( more )
Type: Single-layer trajectory
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
BAMM - Beta and Advection model, medium layer (NHC)
( more )
Type: Single-layer trajectory
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
BAMD - Beta and Advection model, deep layer (NHC)
( more )
Type: Single-layer trajectory
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
Best Track Decay
BCD5 - Best Track Decay (Only available post-season)
CARQ
Combined ARQ (Automated Response to Query) Position
CARQ - Combined ARQ Position
CLIPER and SHIFOR
Climatology and Persistence model and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast model
OCD5 - CLP5 (track) and DSF5 (intensity) models merged
( more )
CLP5 - CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model 5 day)
DSF5 - DSHIFOR5 (Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast, Climatology and Persistence model 5 day)
Type: Statistical (baseline)
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
CLIPER
Climatology and Persistence model
CLIP - CLImatology and PERsistance model 3-day
CLP5 - CLImatology and PERsistance model 5-day (CLIPER5)
( more )
Type: Statistical (baseline)
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
CMC (GEM)
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre
CMC - Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canadian model)
( more )
Type: Multi-layer global dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
CMCI - Previous cycle CMC, adjusted
( more )
Canadian model (Interpolated 06 hours)
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
CMC2 - Canadian model (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre
CEMN - Canadian model Ensemble Mean
( more )
Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre
COAMPS
NRL's Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
COCE - NRL's Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Carib/E Pacific grid
COEI - COAMPS Carib/E Pacific grid (Interpolated 06 hours)
COE2 - COAMPS Carib/E Pacific grid (Interpolated 12 hours)
COAL - NRL's Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Atlantic grid
COAI - COAMPS Atlantic grid (Interpolated 06 hours)
COA2 - COAMPS Atlantic grid (Interpolated 12 hours)
Consensus Models
TCON - Consensus Track Guidance (Average of AVNI/2 + EGRI/2 + NGPI/2 + GHMI/2 + HWFI/2)
( more )
Require at least 5
Input models: AVNI + EGRI + NGPI + GHMI + HWFI
Alternate models: AVN2 + EGR2 + NGP2 + GHM2 + HWF2
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
ICON - Intensity Consensus (DSHP+GFDI+HWFI)
TVCN - Variable Consensus Track Guidance (Average of at least two of: AVNI/2, EGRI/2, NGPI/2, GHMI/2, HWFI/2, GFNI/2, EMXI/2)
( more )
Require at least 2
Input models: AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWFI, GFNI, EMXI
Alternate models: AVN2, EGR2, NGP2, GHM2, HWF2, GFN2, EMX2
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
IVCN - Variable Intensity Consensus Guidance (Average of at least two of: DSHP, LGEM, GHMI/2, HWFI/2)
( more )
Require at least 2
Input models: DSHP, LGEM, GHMI, HWFI
Alternate models: GHM2, HWF2
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Intensity
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
TCOE - Consensus Track Guidance (Average of AVNI/2 + EGRI/2 + GHMI/2 + HWFI/2)
( more )
Require at least 4 (all required)
Input models (max of twenty): AVNI + EGRI + GHMI + HWFI
Alternate models (max of twenty): AVN2 + EGR2 + GHM2 + HWF2
Type: Consensus
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
TCOA - Consensus Track Guidance (Average of AVNI/2 + EGRI/2 + GHMI/2 + HWFI/2)
( more )
Require at least 4 (all required)
Input models (max of twenty): AVNI + EGRI + GHMI + HWFI
Alternate models (max of twenty): AVN2 + EGR2 + GHM2 + HWF2
Type: Consensus
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
TVCE - Variable Consensus Track Guidance (Average of at least two of: AVNI/2, EGRI/2, GHMI/2, HWFI/2, EMXI/2)
( more )
Require at least 2 (at least 2 required)
Input models (max of twenty): AVNI, EGRI, GHMI, HWFI, EMXI
Alternate models (max of twenty): AVN2, EGR2, GHM2, HWF2, EMX2
Type: Consensus
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
TVCA - Variable Consensus Track Guidance (Average of at least two of: AVNI/2, EGRI/2, GHMI/2, HWFI/2, EMXI/2)
( more )
Require at least 2 (at least 2 required)
Input models (max of twenty): AVNI, EGRI, GHMI, HWFI, EMXI
Alternate models (max of twenty): AVN2, EGR2, GHM2, HWF2, EMX2
Type: Consensus
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
CGUN - Version of GUNA corrected for model biases
( more )
Corrected GUNA Consensus Guidance
Type: Corrected consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
TCCN - Version of TCON corrected for model biases
( more )
Corrected TCON Consensus Guidance
Type: Corrected consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
TVCC - Variable Corrected TVCN Consensus Guidance
( more )
Version of TVCN corrected for model biases
Type: Corrected consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
RYOC - Forecaster Created Consensus Guidance (any model combination)
MYOC - Forecaster Created Consensus Guidance (any model combination)
DeMaria Radii CLIPER model
DRCL - DeMaria Radii CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model
DRCI - DeMaria Radii CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) model (Interpolated 06 hours)
Deprecated Models (No Longer Used)
OMPC - MPC official forecast
HURN - HURRAN model
A67 - NHC-67 statistic model
A72 - NHC-72 statistic model
A73 - NHC-73 statistic model
A83 - NHC-83 statistic-dynamic model
A90E - NHC-90 (early) statistic-dynamic model
A90L - NHC-90 (late) statistic-dynamic model
90AE - NHC-90 test
90BE - NHC-90 test
A98E - NHC-98 statistic-dynamic model
A9UK - NHC-98 (UKMET version)
PSS - EP statistic-synoptic model
PSDE - EP (early) statistic-dynamic model
PSDL - EP statistic-dynamic model
P91E - EP NHC-91 (early) statistic-dynamic model
P91L - EP NHC-91 (late) statistic-dynamic model
P9UK - EP NHC_91 (UKMET version)
SBAR - SANBAR barotropic model
BAMA - BAM test A
BAMB - BAM test B
BAMC - BAM test C
VBAR - VICBAR
VBRI - VICBAR model (Interpolated)
MFM - Medium Fine Mesh model
QLM - Quasi-Lagrangian model
QLMI - Quasi_Lagrangian model (Interpolated)
GTSI - GFDL model (Interpolated 06 hours) Test only - Do Not Use!
GTS2 - GFDL model (Interpolated 12 hours) Test only - Do Not Use!
GFDA - GFDL model with Aviation boundary layer parm
GFDE - GFDL model with Emmanuel convective parm
GFDU - GFDL model (UKMET version)
GFUI - GFDL model (UKMET version) (Interpolated)
GFDC - GFDL coupled model
GFCI - GFDL coupled model (Interpolated)
ETA - ETA model
ETAI - ETA model (Interpolated 06 hours)
ETA2 - ETA model (Interpolated 12 hours)
NGM - Nested Grid Model
NGMI - NGM model (Interpolated)
AFW1 - Air Force Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) Coarse resolution model
( more )
Type: Multi-layer regional dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
AF1I - Air Force MM5 Coarse resolution (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model
AF12 - Air Force MM5 Coarse resolution (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model
MM36 - Air Force MM5 model
M36I - Air Force MM5 model (Interpolated)
MRFO - Medium Range Forecast (MRF) Run
FV5 - NASA fvGCM model
FVGI - NASA fvGCM model (Interpolated)
GUNS - Consensus of GFDI, UKMI and NGPI models
GENA - Consensus of AVNI, GFDI, EGRI/2 and NGPI models
CONU - Consensus of AVNI, GFDI, UKMI, NGPI and GFNI models
CONE - Consensus of AVNI, GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, ECMI and GFNI models
CCON - Corrected CONU Consensus
HCON - Intensity Consensus (GFDI+HWFI+GFNI)
ICON - Intensity Consensus (DSHP+GFDI+HWFI)
INT4 - Intensity Consensus (DSHP+GFDI+GFNI+LGEM)
CONI - Intensity Consensus Test only - Do Not Use!
NGPS - Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model
( more )
Type: Multi-layer global dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
NGPI - Previous cycle NGPS, adjusted
( more )
NOGAPS model (Interpolated 06 hours)
Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
NGP2 - NOGAPS model (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
GUNA - Consensus Track Guidance (Average of AVNI/2 + GHMI/2 + EGRI/2 + NGPI/2)
( more )
Require at least 4 (all required)
Input models: AVNI, GHMI, EGRI, NGPI
Alternate models: AVN2, GHM2, EGR2, NGP2
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
Ending in "I" - Interpolated 06 hours
Ending in "2" - Interpolated 12 hours
ECMWF
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model
ECM - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global model
ECMI - ECMWF global model (Interpolated 06 hours)
ECM2 - ECMWF global model (Interpolated 12 hours)
EMX - ECMWF global model [GFS tracker]
( more )
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast
Type: Multi-layer global dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
EMXI - Previous cycle EMX, adjusted
( more )
ECMWF global model [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
EMX2 - ECMWF global model [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
EEMN - ECMWF global model Ensemble Mean [GFS tracker]
( more )
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track
ECMO - ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
ECOI - ECMWF global model [GTS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
ECO2 - ECMWF global model [GTS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
EEMO - ECMWF global model Ensemble Mean EPS [GTS tracker]
ETA
Eta Model
ETA - ETA model
ETAI - ETA model (Interpolated 06 hours)
ETA2 - ETA model (Interpolated 12 hours)
Florida State University Super-ensemble
FSSE - Florida State University Super-ensemble
( more )
Type: Corrected consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
FSSI - Florida State University Super-ensemble (Interpolated 06 hours)
GFDL Ensemble (with descriptions for 2012)
NWS / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model
GP00 - GFDL Ensemble Control
( more )
2012: Control forecast (same model as NCEP 2012 operational GFDL) [GFS deterministic]
GP01 - GFDL Ensemble +01 member
( more )
2012: Unbogussed forecast using the 2012 control model [GFS deterministic]
GP02 - GFDL Ensemble +02 member
( more )
2012: Increase NHC-observed Vmax 10%, 34-kt radii 25%, 50-/64-kt radii 40%, ROCI 25% [GFS deterministic]
GP03 - GFDL Ensemble +03 member
( more )
2012: Decrease NHC-observed Vmax 10%, 34-kt radii 25%, 50-/64-kt radii 40%, ROCI 25% [GFS deterministic]
GP04 - GFDL Ensemble +04 member
( more )
2012: Modification to increase inner-core moisture by a max of 10% [GFS deterministic]
GP05 - GFDL Ensemble +05 member
( more )
2012: Modification to decrease inner-core moisture by a max of 10% [GFS deterministic]
GP06 - GFDL Ensemble +06 member
( more )
2012: Increase SSTs by a max of 1°C within the initial extent of the TC [GFS deterministic]
GP07 - GFDL Ensemble +07 member
( more )
2012: Decrease SSTs by a max of 2°C within the initial extent of the TC [GFS deterministic]
GP08 - GFDL Ensemble +08 member
( more )
2012: Control forecast for the NCEP ensemble-based members [NCEP GEFS]
GP09 - GFDL Ensemble +09 member
( more )
2012: Unbogussed forecast using the 2012 control model [NCEP GEFS]
GP10 - GFDL Ensemble +10 member
( more )
2012: Increase NHC-observed Vmax 10%, 34-kt radii 25%, 50-/64-kt radii 40%, ROCI 25% [NCEP GEFS]
GP11 - GFDL Ensemble +11 member
( more )
2012: Decrease NHC-observed Vmax 10%, 34-kt radii 25%, 50-/64-kt radii 40%, ROCI 25% [NCEP GEFS]
GP12 - GFDL Ensemble +12 member
( more )
2012: Modification to increase inner-core moisture by a max of 10% [NCEP GEFS]
GP13 - GFDL Ensemble +13 member
( more )
2012: Modification to decrease inner-core moisture by a max of 10% [NCEP GEFS]
GP14 - GFDL Ensemble +14 member
( more )
2012: Increase SSTs by a max of 1°C within the initial extent of the TC [NCEP GEFS]
GP15 - GFDL Ensemble +15 member
( more )
2012: Decrease SSTs by a max of 2°C within the initial extent of the TC [NCEP GEFS]
GP16 - GFDL Ensemble +16 member
GPMN - GFDL Ensemble Mean
( more )
2012: Ensemble mean computed at each lead time where the member availability is at least 6 members (40% threshold)
GPMI - GFDL Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Timeliness: Early version of GPMN using GFDL interpolator
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
GPM2 - GFDL Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours)
G01I - GFDL Ensemble +01 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
NHC Desc: GFDL ensemble member with no bogus vortex.
G012 - GFDL Ensemble +01 member (Interpolated 12 hours)
G02I - GFDL Ensemble +02 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G03I - GFDL Ensemble +03 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G04I - GFDL Ensemble +04 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G05I - GFDL Ensemble +05 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G06I - GFDL Ensemble +06 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G07I - GFDL Ensemble +07 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G08I - GFDL Ensemble +08 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G09I - GFDL Ensemble +09 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G10I - GFDL Ensemble +10 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G11I - GFDL Ensemble +11 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G12I - GFDL Ensemble +12 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G13I - GFDL Ensemble +13 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G14I - GFDL Ensemble +14 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G15I - GFDL Ensemble +15 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
G16I - GFDL Ensemble +16 member (Interpolated 06 hours)
GFDL
NWS / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model
GFDL - NWS / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL model)
( more )
Type: Multi-layer regional dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
GFDI - Previous cycle GFDL, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
NWS / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
GFD2 - GFDL model (Interpolated 12 hours)
GHMI - Previous cycle GFDL, adjusted using a variable intensity offset correction that is a function of forecast time. Note that for track, GHMI and GFDI are identical. (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
NWS / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
GHM2 - GFDL model with Intensity adjustment (Interpolated 12 hours)
GFDT - GFDL using [GFS tracker]
GFTI - GFDL using [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
GFT2 - GFDL using [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
GFDN - Navy version of GFDL model
( more )
(GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Type: Multi-layer regional dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
GFNI - Previous cycle GFDN, adjusted
( more )
Navy version of GFDL model (Interpolated 06 hours)
(GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
GFN2 - Navy version of GFDL model (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
(GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
GFS
NWS / Global Forecast System
AVNO - NWS / Global Forecast System (GFS model)
( more )
Type: Multi-layer global dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
AVNI - Previous cycle GFS, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
AVN2 - GFS Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
AP01 - GFS Ensemble +01 member
AP02 - GFS Ensemble +02 member
AP03 - GFS Ensemble +03 member
AP04 - GFS Ensemble +04 member
AP05 - GFS Ensemble +05 member
AP06 - GFS Ensemble +06 member
AP07 - GFS Ensemble +07 member
AP08 - GFS Ensemble +08 member
AP09 - GFS Ensemble +09 member
AP10 - GFS Ensemble +10 member
AP11 - GFS Ensemble +11 member
AP12 - GFS Ensemble +12 member
AP13 - GFS Ensemble +13 member
AP14 - GFS Ensemble +14 member
AP15 - GFS Ensemble +15 member
AP16 - GFS Ensemble +16 member
AP17 - GFS Ensemble +17 member
AP18 - GFS Ensemble +18 member
AP19 - GFS Ensemble +19 member
AP20 - GFS Ensemble +20 member
AC00 - GFS Ensemble Control
AN01 - GFS Ensemble -01 member
AN02 - GFS Ensemble -02 member
AN03 - GFS Ensemble -03 member
AN04 - GFS Ensemble -04 member
AN05 - GFS Ensemble -05 member
AEMN - GFS Ensemble Mean
( more )
NWS / Global Forecast System
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
AEMI - GFS Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Previous cycle AEMN, adjusted
NWS / Global Forecast System
Type: Consensus
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
AEM2 - GFS Ensemble Mean (Interpolated 12 hours)
AMMN - GFS New Ensemble Mean
HFIP Stream 1.5 Models (with other related models) Grouped Together (GFDL Ensemble in separate group)
AHW4 - NCAR Hurricane Regional Model
( more )
NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) / MMM (Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology) - SUNY (University at Albany)
4-km AHW
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
AHWI - NCAR Hurricane Regional Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
NCAR / MMM - SUNY
4-km AHW
Timeliness: Early version of AHW4
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
AHW2 - NCAR Hurricane Regional Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
NCAR / MMM - SUNY
4-km AHW
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
AHQI - NCAR Hurricane Regional Model (Interpolated 06 hours) using GFDL interpolator
( more )
NHC Desc: NCAR/MMM - SUNY 4-km WRF AHW. Early version of AHW4 using GFDL interpolator. Note that AHWI (standard interpolator) is identical to AHQI for track and was used in TV15.
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
COTC - Navy Regional Hurricane Model
( more )
NRL COAMPS-TC
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
COTI - Navy Regional Hurricane Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
NRL COAMPS-TC
Timeliness: Early version of COTC
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
COT2 - Navy Regional Hurricane Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
NRL COAMPS-TC
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
A1PS - PSU (Penn State University) 1 km; TDR (Tail Doppler Radar) assimilated
( more )
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
A1PI - PSU 1 km; TDR assimilated (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Timeliness: Early version of A1PS
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
APSU - PSU (Penn State University) 3 km; TDR (Tail Doppler Radar) assimilated
( more )
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
APSI - PSU 3 km; TDR assimilated (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
APS2 - PSU 3 km; TDR assimilated (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
ANPS - PSU (Penn State University) 3 km; No TDR (Tail Doppler Radar) assimilated
( more )
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
A4PS - PSU (Penn State University) 4.5 km; TDR (Tail Doppler Radar) assimilated
( more )
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
A4PI - PSU 4.5 km; TDR assimilated (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Timeliness: Early version of A4PS
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
A4QI - PSU 4.5 km; TDR assimilated (Interpolated 06 hours) with GFDL interpolator
( more )
NHC Desc: PSU 4.5 km WRF-EnKF system with Doppler data assimilated. Early version of A4PS using GFDL interpolator.
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
A4NR - PSU (Penn State University) 4.5 km; No TDR (Tail Doppler Radar) assimilated
( more )
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
A4NI - PSU 4.5 km; No TDR (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Timeliness: Early version of A4NR
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
FIMY - Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model - EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter) initial conditions
( more )
GSD (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division) FIM
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
FIMI - Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model (Interpolated 06 hours) - EnKF initial conditions
( more )
GSD FIM
Timeliness: Early version of FIMY
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
FIM9 - 15 km Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model
FM9I - 15 km Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
FM92 - 15 km Flow-Following Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
UWN8 - University of Wisconsin - Nonhydrostatic Modeling System
( more )
UW-NMS
8 km
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
UWNI - University of Wisconsin - Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
8 km
Timeliness: Early version of UWN8
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
UWN2 - University of Wisconsin - Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
8 km
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
UWQI - University of Wisconsin - Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (Interpolated 06 hours) using GFDL interpolator
( more )
NHC Desc: University of Wisconsin 8 km. Early version of UWN8 using GFDL interpolator.
Parameters forecast: Intensity
SPC3 - Intensity Consensus Ensemble of HWRF, GFDL and GFS operational models each with DSHIPS and LGEM
( more )
CSU-CIRA
SPC3 (Statistical Prediction of Intensity with a Consensus Ensemble (SPICE), 3 parent model version) is an HFIP experimental statistical model. Combination of 6 different models, SHIPS using results from operational GFDL, HWRF and GFS dynamical models and LGEM using output from same three dynamical models giving ensemble of 6 which is then averaged.
NHC Desc: CIRA SPICE 6-member statistical consensus of DSHP and LGEM with different initial conditions.
H3GP - High-Resolution Triple Nested HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting) Model
( more )
NCEP/EMC-AOML/HRD
3-km HWRF
Resolution: 27/9/3 (Increased model resolution to 3 km near hurricane core)
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
H3GI - High-Resolution Triple Nested HWRF Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
3-km HWRF
Timeliness: Early version of H3GP
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
Additonal note for Intensity: GHMI interpolator.
TV15 - HFIP 1.5 Variable Consensus Track Guidance (GFSI, EGRI, GHMI, GFNI, HWFI, EMXI and the Stream 1.5 models AHWI and FIMI)
( more )
NOAA's HFIP (Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program)
IV15 - HFIP 1.5 Variable Intensity Consensus Guidance (DSHP, LGEM, GHMI, HWFI and the Stream 1.5 models AHQI, COTI, A4QI and UWQI.)
( more )
NOAA's HFIP (Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program)
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model
HWRF - Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
( more )
Type: Multi-layer regional dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
HWFI - Previous cycle HWRF, adjusted (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
HWF2 - HWRF model (Interpolated 12 hours)
JGSM
Japanese Global Spectral Model
JGSM - Japanese Global Spectral Model
JGSI - Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 06 hours)
JGS2 - Japanese Global Spectral Model (Interpolated 12 hours)
LBAR
Limited Area Sine Transform Barotropic Model
LBAR - Limited Area Sine Transform Barotropic Model
( more )
Type: Single-layer regional dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track
MRFO
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) Run
MRFO - Medium Range Forecast (MRF) Run
McAdie Radii CLIPER model
MRCL - McAdie Radii CLIPER model
( more )
CLImatology and PERsistence
MRCI - McAdie Radii CLIPER model
( more )
CLImatology and PERsistence (Interpolated 06 hours)
NAM
North American Mesoscale model
NAM - North American Mesoscale model
( more )
NWS / NAM model
Type: Multi-layer regional dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
NAMI - NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 06 hours)
NAM2 - NWS / NAM model (Interpolated 12 hours)
NAVGEM
Navy Global Environmental Model
NVGM - NAVGEM
NGX - NAVGEM [GFS tracker]
( more )
Navy Global Environmental Model
In 2012 and earlier was version of NOGAPS.
NGXI - NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Navy Global Environmental Model
In 2012 and earlier was version of NOGAPS.
NGX2 - NAVGEM [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
( more )
Navy Global Environmental Model
In 2012 and earlier was version of NOGAPS.
NGM
Nested Grid Model
NHC Forecast (from ATCF Database)
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast
OFCL - National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
( more )
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
OFCI - National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast, in ATCF system and not from advisory data (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Previous cycle OFCL, adjusted
Type: Interpolated
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
OFC2 - National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast, in ATCF system and not from advisory data (Interpolated 12 hours)
OHPC
NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) official forecast
OHPC - NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) official forecast
OOPC
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) official forecast
OOPC - NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) official forecast
Rapid Intensity Aid
RI25 - Rapid Intensity Aid 25kts (24 hr RI Prob)
( more )
There is a percentage threshold for producing this deterministic rapid intensification aid.
See "
A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid", Sampson et al. (2011)
The probabilistic text product can be found
here in the SHIPS text product folder.
RI30 - Rapid Intensity Aid 30kts (24 hr RI Prob)
( more )
There is a percentage threshold for producing this deterministic rapid intensification aid.
See "
A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid", Sampson et al. (2011)
The probabilistic text product can be found
here in the SHIPS text product folder.
RI35 - Rapid Intensity Aid 35kts (24 hr RI Prob)
( more )
There is a percentage threshold for producing this deterministic rapid intensification aid.
See "
A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid", Sampson et al. (2011)
The probabilistic text product can be found
here in the SHIPS text product folder.
RI40 - Rapid Intensity Aid 40kts (24 hr RI Prob)
( more )
There is a percentage threshold for producing this deterministic rapid intensification aid.
See "
A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid", Sampson et al. (2011)
The probabilistic text product can be found
here in the SHIPS text product folder.
SHIFOR
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast model
SHFR - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model 3-day
SHF5 - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model 5-day
( more )
SHIFOR5 (Climatology and Persistence model)
Type: Statistical (baseline)
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Intensity
DSHF - Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model
DSF5 - Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model 5-day
( more )
DSHIFOR5 (Climatology and Persistence model)
Type: Statistical (baseline)
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Intensity
SHIPS
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme
SHIP - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
( more )
Type: Statistical-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Intensity
DSHP - Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model
( more )
Type: Statistical-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Intensity
LGEM - SHIPS Logistic Growth Equation Model
SHPP - SHIPS model parallel (As of 2008, listed as: experimental - do not use)
DSPP - Decay SHIPS model parallel (As of 2008, listed as: experimental - do not use)
SHNS - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) not using IR profile predictors
DSNS - Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) not using IR profile predictors
UKMET
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
EGRR - UKMET model, with subjective quality control applied to the tracker
( more )
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
Type: Multi-layer global dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
EGRI - UKMET model, with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Previous cycle EGRR, adjusted
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
EGR2 - UKMET model, with subjective quality control applied to the tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
UKX - UKMET [GFS tracker]
UKXI - UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours)
UKX2 - UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours)
UKM - UKMET model, automated tracker
( more )
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
Type: Multi-layer global dynamical
Timeliness: Late
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
UKMI - UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 06 hours)
( more )
Previous cycle UKM, adjusted
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
Type: Interpolated-dynamical
Timeliness: Early
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity
UKM2 - UKMET model, automated tracker (Interpolated 12 hours)
XTRP
Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion
XTRP - A simple extrapolation using past 12-hr motion