Abaco Islands, Bahamas' History with Tropical Systems

Current Weather | Great Abaco Island Major Hurricane History Video

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Most likely to be hit by a hurricane between August 31st and September 6th

Years within or near core

1871m
1871
1877tsbr
1877ts
1878tsbr
1879
1881ts
1881
1883
1886br
1887m
1888ts
1893-2m
1893ts
1895ts
1895
1896m
1897-2ts
1898ts
1899m
1899
1901tsbr
1903br
1906br
1906m
1908ts
1908
1909ts
1909
1914ts
1916ts
1923tsbr
1924ts
1926m
1926ts
1926m
1927ts
1928m
1929m
1932m
1933
1933-2m
1934br
1935m
1935br
1936ts
1937-2ts
1938ts
1939ts
1944br
1946
1947m
1948
1949m
1951
1953ts
1956
1958ts
1959ts
1965m
1987ts
1992brm
1995
1996
1998bdts
1999
1999m
2001br
2004
2004m
2005ts
2007br
2008tsbr
2010ts
2011tsbr
2011
2012
2016brm
2019m
2019tsbr
2020br
2020tsbr
2022ts
2024bdbr
2025ts not in stats below

88 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (B and F storms most likely to impact the area)

Able
Judith
Betsy
Daisy
Janice
Betsy
Floyed
Andrew
Fran
Bertha
Mitch
Dennis
Floyd
Michelle
Frances
Jeanne
Franklin
Noel
Hanna
Bonnie
Bret
Irene
Sandy
Matthew
Dorian
Humberto
Isaias
Eta
Nicole
Milton
Imelda

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 36, 40.91%
H = 52, 59.09%

only 26.74% of all tropical systems in Abaco are major hurricanes

Longest gap between storms

21 years 1966-1986

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 1.74 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for at least a few hours)

Once every 3.83 years. (40 hits) (highest hurricane hit rate in database)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 7.29 years. (21 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

114 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

hit in 2025

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2025 Sept 29th tropical storm Imelda hits with 60mph winds while moving north.

This area's hurricane history

1871 August 15th 115 mph from the east. Hit map
1871 August 24th 105 mph from the east-southeast.
1879 August 17th 90 mph from the south-southeast.
1881 August 25th 90 mph from the southeast just northeast of here.
1883 105 mph September 9th from the south 106 killed in Bahamas passed just west of here.
1887 August 22nd 120 mph from the east.
1893 August 26th 120 mph from the east-southeast. Hit map
1893 October 11th 120 mph from the east-southeast. Hit map
1895 October 22nd, 105 mph from the south-southwest.
1896 September 6th 115 mph from the south. Hit map
1899 August 12th 120 mph from the south-southeast.
1899 October 30th, 95 mph from the south.
1906 September 6th 125 mph just east from the southeast.
1908 October 1st 110 mph from the southwest.
1909 October 11th, 95 mph from the west-southwest.
1926 July 26th 125 mph just south from the southeast.
1926 October 21st, 115 mph from the west-southwest just north.
1928 September 16th 155 mph just south from the east-southeast.
1929 September 25th 120 mph from the northeast just south.
1932 September 6th, 160 mph (HURDAT confirmed) area was hit by a major hurricane category 5 with gusts up to 200 mph the hurricane blew down 2 churches made of heavy stone 3 feet thick, pressure estimated at 27.60 inHg. Families crawled from house to house as each was destroyed by high wind gusts up to 200 mph. 18 killed, 300 injured.
1933 July 29th, 85 mph from the southeast.
1933 September 3rd, 140 mph just south from the east-southeast.
1933 October 5th, 145 mph from the west-southwest pressure 29.06 inHg highest gust 100 mph, no deaths reported.
1935 September 29th 115 mph from the southwest just north.
1946 September 13th, 75 mph from the southwest.
1947 September 17th, a major hurricane 125 mph (HURDAT) pummels area with 160 mph gusts. Heavy damage.
1948 October 6th, 90 mph from the southwest just north.
1949 August 26th 130 mph just south while moving west-northwest.
1951 May 18th Hurricane Able hits from the north with 85 mph winds.
1956 August 14th, 110 mph from the southeast just east.
1965 September 6th Hurricane Betsy 125 mph, the area had hurricane force winds for over 20 hrs & a max wind of 147 mph, at Hope Town a gust of 178 mph 14 million damage in the Bahamas. Damage photo | NHC wallet
1995 August 1st, Hurricane Erin hits the area as a category 1 75 mph from the east-southeast minor damage. NHC report
1996 July 10th, Hurricane Bertha 105 mph to northeast from the south-southeast, area had gusts to 95 mph with flooding. NHC report
1999 August 27th Hurricane Dennis hits northern parts with 80 mph winds causing flooding, crop damage & sinking some boats. NHC report
1999 September 14th Hurricane Floyd hits with 145 mph winds causing very heavy damage on the entire island. Immediately after hurricane, Planes could not land due to too much debris and high storm surge flooding. Fox Town & northern settlements reported over 20 foot storm surge. Many marinas were destroyed & 400 homes totally destroyed. Eye passage one hour in duration. Two thousand left homeless on the island.
2004, September 3rd Hurricane Frances hits with 105 mph winds, reports of heavy damage but not as bad as Floyd in 1999. NHC report
2004, September 25th Hurricane Jeanne eye passes over north part of Island. 2nd hit in 3 weeks as Jeanne hits with 115 mph winds. Treasure Cay International airport. The facility has been extensively damaged by Hurricanes Jeanne and Frances. Flood waters rose to more than six feet in some areas and roofs were blown off of houses. Part of roof at emergency operations center collapsed causing minor injuries to occupants. Sat image | Models 3 days before hitting
2011 August 25th Hurricane Irene passes over with 105 mph winds while moving north-northwest causing moderate damage most of the island experienced no more than category 2 winds. Hurricane Warning Show | Irene model history | Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School). | Aftermath video
2012 October 26th, Hurricane Sandy hits with 80 mph winds from the south-southeast. Sandy model history | Post NHC
2019, September 1st, Hurricane Dorian hits from the east with 185 mph winds ravaging the area for over 24 hrs. The Health Minister in the Bahamas estimated that more than 200 people lost their lives in Dorian. The Bahamas Weather Service estimated the total at 74, with 63 these occurring in Abaco The Bahamas Weather Service also reported that there were 245 people missing at the time of their report 912 mb. (per NHC report) Our coverage as it happened | Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) | Final average model error | Dorian wind swath | Wayne Neely's book on Dorian | NHC report

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......