Hebert Hurricane Box

Many people visiting HurricaneCity have asked "What is this Hebert box I keep hearing about"?. The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by the late Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every major hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.

This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major hurricanes miss these boxes, they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes, approx 335 miles by 335 miles, include the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties. The following is a list showing hurricanes that passed through these boxes, starting with Box #1.

Box #1 (since 1950)

1950 Baker - Alabama
1950 Dog - out to sea
1951 Charlie - Yucatan / Mexico
1952 Baker - out to sea
1953 Carol - Nova Scotia
1954 Alice - Leeward Islands, out to sea
1955 Connie - North Carolina
1955 Ione - North Carolina
1956 Betsy - Northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, Bahamas
1958 Fifi - out to sea
1958 Ilsa - out to sea
1960 Donna - Northern Antilles, Bahamas, Florida, Eastern Seaboard
1963 Edith - Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola
1964 Cleo - Northern Antilles, Hispaniola, Haiti, Cuba, Florida
1966 Faith - Northern Antilles
1966 Inez - Northern Antilles, Hispaniola, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, Yucatan, Mexico
1967 Beulah - Hispaniola, Yucatan, South Texas
1975 Eloise - Hispaniola, Florida Panhandle
1979 David - Antilles, Hispaniola, Haiti, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
1984 Klaus - out to sea
1985 Gloria - Northeastern U.S.
1989 Dean - Bermuda, Newfoundland
1989 Hugo - Northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, South Carolina
1990 Klaus - out to sea
1995 Luis - Northern Antilles, Newfoundland
1995 Marilyn - Northern Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
1996 Bertha - Northern Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, North Carolina
1996 Fran - North Carolina
1996 Hortense - Puerto Rico, Nova Scotia
1997 Erika - out to sea
1998 Georges - Northern Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Haiti, Cuba, Florida Keys, Mississippi
1999 Jose - Northern Antilles, Virgin Islands
1999 Lenny - Northern Antilles
2000 Debby - Northern Antilles, Virgin Islands, Hispaniola
2004 Frances - Bahamas, Treasure Coast, Florida
2008 Omar - Virgin Islands
2010 Earl - Nova Scotia (ts)
2014 Gonzalo - Bermuda
2017 Irma - Virgin Islands, Cuba, Florida from south to north
2017 Maria - Puerto Rico, Caicos
2019 Jerry - out to sea
2019 Dorian - Northwestern Bahamas cat 5, Outer Banks cat 2
2023 Tammy - Barbuda, out to sea

Box #2 (since 1950)

1951 Item - Cayman Islands, Cuba
1952 Fox - Cayman Islands, Cuba, Bahamas
1961 Hattie - Belize
1981 Katrina - Cuba, Bahamas
1988 Gilbert - Yucatan, Mexico
1995 Roxanne - Yucatan
1998 Mitch - Honduras
2001 Iris - Belize
2001 Michelle - Cuba, Bahamas
2004 Charley - Western Cuba, Florida
2005 Emily - Yucatan, Mexico
2005 Wilma - Yucatan, southern Florida
2007 Dean - Yucatan
2008 Gustav - Western Cuba, Louisiana
2008 Paloma - Caymans, Eastern Cuba
2009 Ida - Southeast Louisiana
2010 Paula - West Cuba
2011 Rina - Yucatan
2012 Ernesto - Yucatan
2020 Delta - Louisiana cat 2
2021 Grace Yucatan, southern Mexico
2022 Ian - Southwest Florida
2024 Beryl - Yucatan, Central Texas
2024 Rafael - Western Cuba, dissipated in Gulf

So what does all this mean when a hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?

Florida has only a slightly higher chance than North Carolina of being affected.
32.56% go out to sea after moving through Hebert box #1.
Only 9.03% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box #1 as a hurricane.

What about Box #2, hurricanes developing or moving through after October 1st since 1950?

Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.

To wrap things up, two significant hurricanes that hit South Florida did not pass through this box, Andrew in 1992 and Betsy in 1965! Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose named storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.