Kingston, Jamaica's History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Kingston most likely to be hit by a hurricane between September 7th and September 13th

Years near or within core winds

1874
1879ts
1880br
1880
1884tsbr
1886
1895br
1896
1898tsbr
1899ts
1901tsbr
1903m
1909tsbr
1910br
1912m
1915
1916
1917br
1918tsbr
1924ts
1928ts
1931ts
1932ts
1933ts
1933br
1934ts
1942ts
1944m
1951m
1980m
1988m
1994ts
2004m
2005br
2007m
2008ts
2012
2021tsbr
2021ts
2024mbr

40 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (G storms most likely to impact the area)

Charlie
Allen
Gilbert
Gordon
Ivan
Dennis
Dean
Gustav
Sandy
Elsa
Grace
Beryl

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 18, 45%
H = 22, 55%

22.5% of all tropical systems affecting Kingston are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

28 years 1951-1980

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 3.83 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for at least a few hours)

Once every 10.2 years. (15 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 19.13 years. (8 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

113 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2028

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 July 3rd Hurricane Beryl brushes south by 43 miles while moving west-northwest with 140 mph winds.

This area's hurricane history

1874 November 1st 90 mph from the South moving northeast direct hit
1880 August 19th a hurricane hits from the southeast with 80 mph winds over 20 killed in jamaica.
1886 August 20th, 110 mph from the south-southeast
1896 September 25th, 80 mph from the east-southeast
1903 August 11th, 120 mph from the east-southeast
1912 November 18th 115 mph (HURDAT) from the west-southwest causes massive tidal surges killing 100.
1915 August 13th, 110 mph from the east-southeast passes just north
1916 August 15th, 110 mph from the east-southeast
1944 August 20th, 120 mph from the east-southeast
1951 August 18th Hurricane Charlie hits with 125 mph winds from the east-southeast with some gusts to 125 mph winds very heavy damage, kills 154 leaves 50,000 homeless. Newpaper Headline
1980 August 6th, 130 mph to the north Hurricane Allen from the east-southeast passes 37 miles to north. Jim Leonard in Jamaica | NHC Wallet | Hit map
1988 Hurricane Gilbert hits September 12 with 121 mph winds from the east-southeast with gusts to 147 mph, kills 45 leaves 500,000 homeless 2 billion dollars damage to area, banana crops ruined. Satelite photo | Newspaper article | Average model error
2004, September 11th hit by Hurricane Ivan with 155 mph winds moving approximately 50 miles to the south from the east-southeast with Ivan having a wind field approximately 85 miles out. Moderate to heavy damage in Kingston. Ham radio report of 124 mph gust. Closeup sat image.
2007 August 19th Hurricane Dean passes just south with 145 mph winds from the east-southeast while moving west. Significant damage to roofs & structures in southern Jamaica. Kingston and St. Andrew, severe wind damage and downed power lines in the Riverton city area. Also, a fallen tree caused the collapse of a residential building in the Chambers Lane Area of Liguanea, St. Andrew. Historic Sabina Park cricket ground reported roof damage.In Jamaica, the most severe impacts were reported in the southeastern parishes of Clarendon, St. Catherine, and Kingston/St. Andrew, where it is estimated that roughly two-thirds of the homes were completely destroyed or would require major repairs. Flooding in Jamaica was not generally significant, although some occurred in eastern parishes where grounds had become saturated by rains the previous week. Agriculture, particularly the banana crop, was severely impacted. Stony Hill, St. Andrew sustained 75 mph, Portmore, St. Catherine sustained 95 mph, Lionel Town, Clarendon sustained 97 mph. Hurricane warning show | Newspaper article | Jim Edds in Kingston |
2012 October 24th Hurricane Sandy hits from the south with 80 mph winds while moving north. Sandy model history | Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Post NHC

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......