Negril, Jamaica's History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

Negril most likely to be hit by a hurricane between September 7th and September 13th

Years within 60 miles

1879ts
1880br
1886bdbr
1887ts
1895
1896
1898-2tsbr
1901-2tsbr
1903bdm
1904br
1910ts
1910br
1912m
1915m
1916
1917br
1918-2tsbr
1928ts
1931ts
1932ts
1933-2tsbr
1933
1935m
1935tsbr
1938br
1939br
1942tsbr
1944bd
1948tsbr
1949ts
1950br
1951bdm
1980brm
1988bdm
2002ts
2004br
2004m
2007m
2008tsbd
2021bdts
2024m
2024ts

46 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (G storms most likely to impact the area)

King
Charlie
Allen
Gilbert
Isidore
Charley
Ivan
Dean
Gustav
Grace
Beryl
Rafael

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 22, 47.73%
H = 24, 52.27%

21.74% of all tropical systems affecting Negril are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

28 years 1951-1980

How often this area gets affected?

Brushed or hit every 3.33 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for a few hours)

Once every 10.93 years. (14 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 17 years. (9 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

114 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2028

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 November 5th Tropical storm Rafael passes just west by 27 miles with 60 mph winds while moving northwest.

This area's hurricane history

1895 August 25th, 95 mph just south from the east-southeast
1896 September 26th, 85 mph just south from the east-southeast
1903 August 11th, 120 mph from the east-southeast
1912 November 18th, pressure 965 mb, 115 mph winds from the south-southwest, very high tides kill 100, 20,000 homes destroyed in west Jamaica.
1915 August 13th, 115 mph from the east-southeast passes just north
1916 August 16th, 110 mph from the east-southeast
1933 October 29th, 95 mph winds from the south pressure 29.00 10 killed.
1935 September 27th, 115 mph just west from the south
1944 August 20th, 90 mph from the east-southeast
1951 Hurricane Charlie 125 mph (HURDAT) August 18th from the east-southeast 154 killed in Jamaica, 50,000 homeless.
1988 September 13th, Hurricane Gilbert hits with 115 mph winds while moving west hits direct from the east causing very heavy damage killing 23 in Jamaica. Newspaper article | Satelite photo | Average model error.
2004, September 11th hit by Hurricane Ivan with 145 mph winds moving just to the south from the east-southeast with Ivan having a wind field approximately 85 miles out, heavy damage in this area. NHC report
2007 August 19th Hurricane Dean passes approximately 35 to 40 miles to the south while moving west with 145 mph winds. Most of the damage reported are to the roofs of several houses, which were hit by very heavy winds and fallen trees. There are also minor damage to some roadways across the parish and many were made impassable due to several fallen trees and poles. Two of the parish's major markets, Savanna-la-Mar and Grange Hill, were severely damaged by heavy winds. Hurricane warning show | Newspaper article
2024 July 3rd Hurricane Beryl major hurricane force wind field (radar)just misses brushing to south by 28 miles with 130 mph winds while moving west-northwest. Area had hurricane force wind field as Beryl pulled away. Hit map | Our coverage

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......