San Juan, Puerto Rico's History with Tropical Systems

(br) = Brush (ts) = Tropical Storm (bd) = Back Door, meaning coming from over land from opposite coast. Not all names are noted. Also, storms before 1950 were not named. Not every stat on every storm description is given. (since 1871)

San Juan most likely to be hit by a hurricane between August 31st and September 6th

Years within or near core

1871brm
1876
1878ts
1889br
1891tsbr
1893m
1894br
1896br
1898tsbr
1899m
1900tsbr
1901tsbr
1901ts
1908tsbr
1910br
1916ts
1916
1928m
1930brm
1931ts
1931
1932m
1933tsbr
1938ts
1942ts
1947tsbr
1949tsbr
1956
1979ts
1981ts
1984tsbr
1989m
1995br
1996-2br
1998m
2004ts
2007subts
2011
2014tsbr
2015tsbr
2017brm
2017m
2020tsbr
2020ts
2022br
2024tsbr

47 times in 153 years (as of end of 2024)

Names from list above (I storms most likely to impact the area)

Betsy
Frederic
Gert
Klaus
Hugo
Bertha
Marilyn
Hortense
Georges
Jeanne
Olga
Irene
Bertha
Erika
Irma
Maria
Isaias
Laura
Fiona
Ernesto

Tropical Storm to Hurricane ratio

TS = 24, 51.06%
H = 23, 48.94%

23.26% of all tropical systems affecting San Juan are major hurricanes this includes brushes

Longest gap between storms

22 years 1957-1978

How often this area gets affected?

San Juan Brushed or hit every 3.26 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits. (hurricane force winds for a few hours)

Once every 12.75 years. (12 hits)

Average years between major hurricane hits.

Once every 21.86 years. (7 hits)

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on sustained winds from advisories, not gusts)

116 mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next

Before the end of 2026

This is just a statistical average & does not mean the area will be affected by that year.

Last affected by

2024 August 14th Tropical Storm Ernesto brushes to the north with 70 mph winds while moving northwest

This area's hurricane history

1876 September 13th 105 mph from the east reports of 19 killed but historians suspect the spanish government withheld death toll & damage info.
1893 August 16th, 115 mph from the southeast. Hit map
1899 A severe hurricane comes in from the east-southeast on August 8th. Winds at approach on southeast Puerto Rico were estimated at 140 mph. 3,369 deaths reported in Puerto Rico.Closest approach of eye to San Juan was approximately 28 miles.
1916 August 22nd, pressure 29.44, 95 mph with 92 mph for 10 min Area of destruction was probably 45 or 50 miles wide and time or passing about two and a quarter hours from the east-southeast
1928 September 13th, 160 mph from the southeast, 135 mph recorded for 5 min pressure 27.50 inHg top gust 165 mph 312 killed in Puerto Rico. Hotel palace & union club roofs blown off thousands of homes flattened. US president asking for help | Newspaper Article
1931 September 11th, 85 mph from the east
1932 September 27th, 145 mph (HURDAT) from the east pressure 27.70 east of San Juan gusts to 120 mph 255 killed. 75,000 homes destroyed Newspaper article | Aftermath video
1956 Hurricane Betsy August 12th, 90 mph from the southeast.
1989 September 18th, 125 mph from the southeast Hurricane Hugo passes just northeast of San Juan with the core passing over Culebra causing extensive damage. NHC Wallet | Hugo aftermath Richard Horodner
1998 September 21st, Hurricane Georges 115 mph over entire island just south of San Juan from the east-southeast causes 2 bill dollars damage killing 12, heavier damage was to the east of here. In Puerto Rico over 28,000 homes destroyed & 72,000 damaged Average model error | Radar at landfall | Jim Leonard video from Luquillo
2011 August 22nd, Irene becomes a hurricane with 75 mph winds while moving west-northwest just west of here. San Juan clocked a wind gust to 59 mph on the 22nd and received 12.25 inches of rain from August 21-24. Hurricane force winds remained out over water north of the center. Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Irene model history
2017 September 20th Hurricane Maria hits just south by 14 miles with 130 mph winds (SW of here) while moving northwest causing heavy damage. Maria knocked down 80 percent of Puerto Rico�s utility poles and all transmission lines, resulting in the loss of power to essentially all of the island�s 3.4 million residents. Practically all cell phone service was lost and municipal water supplies were knocked out. At of the end of 2017, nearly half of Puerto Rico�s residents were still without power. Death toll revised in 2018 to 2,975 for Puerto Rico to include those killed in the aftermath. Radar animation (Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School) Probabilistic tracks | Main models | Relief concert 5 former presidents attend | Our coverage upon approach | NHC Report

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Stat sources:

Text Sources:

"Divine Wind" by Kerry Emanuel
"Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms" by John M. Williams and Iver W. Duedall
"Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
"Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross
HurricaneCity.com calculations by Jim Williams
"Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States" by Rick Schwartz
"Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams
"Inside the Hurricane" by Pete Davies
"Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson
"Killer 'Cane" by Robert Mykle
"Lunatic Wind" by William Price Fox
Miami Herald newspaper (microfilm)
"Path of Destruction" by John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein
Sun Sentinel newspaper (microfilm)
"The Major Hurricanes To Affect The Bahamas" by Wayne Neely
"The Ship and the Storm" by Jim Carrier
Plus many more......