logo
  • Home
  • About Jim Williams
  • Jim Williams

Monthly Archives: May 2020

hurricane season 2020 landfall predictions

By : Jim Williams May 18th,2020

As we approach another hurricane season all indications are that it will be a busy one. I am predicting between 18 and 20 named storms in the Atlantic basin. My city landfall predictions are based on calculations of 8 criteria mainly statistical with a couple of environmental such as ENSO analog years & the North Atlantic Oscillation. Below is a chart that I use every year before the season starts to calculate my top 20. I arrive at my top 20 cities & islands by using my eight criteria against every city in the database (140) with the areas making the cut by at least being in one of the boxes below.

2020predchart

As you can see the highlighted yellow boxes indicates #1 Cancun, Mexico has data in the most columns (5) of 8 and therefore wins. Then the real calculations begin for example 3 locations share 4 columns and those 3 have order determined by highest % in each column . Here is the list of what areas have the most columns 5)Cancun, Mexico (alone) 4)St Pierre,NF — Cayman Isl, — Manzanillo, Cuba . 3) Grand Isle,LA — Galveston,TX–Ocean city,MD — Miami,FL — Brownsville,TX 2) Oviedo,DR — ABC Isl –Morehead city,NC — Dauphin Isl,AL — Cabo Corrientes,CU — Norfolk,VA & Barbados 1) Kingston,JA –Myrtle bch,SC — NY,NY — Tampa,FL. Each grouping competes for highest % in each column for pecking order. Based on all my number crunching here is my top 20 #1) most vulnerable to #20)moderate.

#1)Cancun,Mexico
#2)Cayman Islands
#3)Manzanillo,Cuba
#4)St Pierre,Newfoundland
#5)Brownsville,Texas
#6)Ocean city,Maryland
#7)Miami,FL
#8)Grand Isle,Louisiana
#9)Galveston,Texas
#10)Aruba,Bonaire,Curacao
#11)Morehead city,North Carolina
#12)Norfolk,Virginia
#13)Cabo Corrientes, Cuba
#14)Oviedo,Dominican republic
#15)Barbados
#16)Dauphin isl,Alabama
#17)Kingston,Jamaica
#18)Myrtle beach,South Carolina
#19)New York,New York
#20)Tampa,Florida

2020tracks

Of course there will be far more tracks than the two above but I do expect quite a few re curvatures (systems turning north before hitting Bahamas). So to wrap things up my concern this season is for the Western Caribbean & possibly Texas with maybe a east coast rider coming up from the gulf. I must stress that if your city or island is not on this list do not let your guard down. In any given season anyone can be affected but if your in my top 5 batten down the hatches (be ready).

Pages

  • About Jim Williams
  • Jim Williams

Archives

  • November 2021
  • May 2021
  • May 2020
  • November 2019
  • November 2018
  • May 2018
  • November 2017
  • May 2017
  • February 2017
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • June 2015

Categories

  • Uncategorized (22)

WordPress

  • Log in
  • WordPress

Subscribe

  • Entries (RSS)
  • Comments (RSS)
  • About Jim Williams
  • Jim Williams