By : Jim Williams hurricanecity.com as each Atlantic hurricane season approaches you will hear and read about how many named storms there will be, the accumulated cyclone energy ACE, how many majors etc. but not much about where named storms could go.

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th. Each season some of the cities/islands in the database https://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm will be impacted possibly with significant impacts. My process begins by determining how many named storms there could be a busy vs moderate vs slow season makes a big difference in what areas could be impacted. After my range is determined I work on my ten criteria listed below to choose my top 20 out of 139 that possess some of the criteria. After the top 20 are chosen the number crunching begins to determine which of the 20 matches the most criteria to arrive at my top 5.

“If you know your cities history it’s only a matter of time, if your city/island is past it’s statistical due date watch out”

Several factors determine how many storms I expect with most ENSO models indicating a La Nina pattern which is favorable meaning less wind shear for developing systems , Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and lower pressures. I also factor in what agencies are saying in regards to numbers of named storms then add storms for potential frontal systems that transition to become tropical along with recent predictions which have been lower than what actually happened. So this year I am calling for 28 to 30 named storms of which 10 to 12 will become hurricanes 4 to 5 of those major 115+mph .

The landfall predictions do not determine what intensity or exactly how close named storms will come to my chosen locations. My average is around 50 to 60 miles away give or take so it does not take a direct hit to be considered impacted. My last full forecast done in 2021 before health issues was an average of 41 miles from the center of the storm. Below is my list of criteria with a brief description of each and whether the top 20 have been impacted when this happened.

• Seasons since 1990 with an average numbers of 19+ named storms with only Brownsville TX and Manzanillo Cuba reaching this criteria.
• My chosen analog years based on projections of reaching a La Nina season following the strong El Nino from 2023. 1973,1988,1998 and 2010. The top 20 impacted in any of those years Mole St Nicolas Haiti 3, Cancun MX, Cozumel MX, Honduras, Miami FL, Nuevitas CU, Port Salut Haiti each with 2 . Abaco & Andros BAH, Brownsville TX, Manzanillo CU, Morgan city LA, with 1.
• Statistically due or overdue for 40+ mph includes brushes. Only four areas were overdue in top 20 Andros, Bimini and Nassau BAH and Pensacola FL 1 year overdue, with Abaco BAH, Cancun & Cozumel MX, Cayman islands, Ft Lauderdale, Miami and Palm bch FL, Mole st Nicolas Haiti (nw) all due.
• Statistically due or overdue for a hurricane strike 10 of the 20 years overdue Nassau BAH 1, Manzanillo CU 2, Morgan city LA 2, Cayman isl 9, Honduras 11, Ft Lauderdale & Palm bch 12, Bimini BAH 13, Miami FL 13, Brownsville 23.
• Average number of named storms when hit by a hurricane 15+ named storms zero none met criteria.
• Impacted in seasons when between June and November the dominant feature was a Neutral North Atlantic oscillation. No one knows what the NAO will be at this time but I deployed AI to do a sequence using historical data and it chose Neutral. Based on a neutral NAO cities/islands with 4 plus impacts since 1990 are listed. Abaco isl BAH 4, Elizabeth city & Morehead city NC 4. To follow the NAO stats check https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
• Trends going back to 1871 I try to figure out patterns such as if a city was impacted in 2023 how how often do they get impacted the following year. If it was last impacted 3 years ago how often do they get impacted 3 years later. In my top 20 nine of those have unique trends with Cancun MX winning that criteria. Last impacted 3 years ago they have been impacted 3 years later 7 times.
• CSU analog years additional years to the ones I chose above are 1878 and 1926 so who got impacted most during those years? 9 of my 20 matched both years. Abaco, Bimini and Nassau BAH , Miami, Ft Laud and Palm bch, Caymans, Manzanillo Cuba (se), Nuevitas Cuba (north c).
• Were any of my top 20 picked last year? each year my picks don’t get impacted the following year odds go up they will be. Four were picked last year Abaco,, Andros, Bimini and Nassau.
• Who in my top 20 get impacted during the expected La Nina seasons? 6 of the 20 are in the top 1/3 of locations impacted in La Nina years. The winner in this criteria is Elizabeth city, NC with 11 impacted since 1950 next was Honduras with 10.

Chart showing criteria with yellow shaded areas winning each criteria. Areas with the most yellow are higher ranked. Tie breakers are based on strength of systems or amount of impacts. #1) Great Abaco Island Bahamas has 3 with 1926 analog weighing huge.

Now you may ask what criteria do you put the most weight on?, the two most important especially when figuring my top 20 are overdue all storms and trends going back to 1871. You also may ask why was my city or island not included in your top 20? Areas on the bubble were Puerto Rico which did match CSU analogs 1878 and 1926, Lesser Antilles including ABC islands overdue for hurricane strike and analog 1988 , Nicaragua analog 1988 ,2010, N.E US analog 1878. It seems as though in years with La Nina conditions stronger ridging takes place pushing systems further west and south which would impact the Caribbean and Gulf much more.

Each season I do landfall predictions I make a map with two dominant tracks I think could happen. These have been surprisingly good in some years practically matching tracks that actually happened. Below are the tracks with one mid season and one late I added potential width of hurricane force winds. This will forever be known as the pitchfork map if I end up being correct..

I know some of you that watched the video are wondering what was that explosion noise for Miami. That is my ticking time bomb pick for 2024 reserved for areas that are way overdue especially for hurricanes.

Miami has a hurricane return rate of once every 12.67 years since 1871 for the core of a hurricane to give the city hurricane force winds. Miami’s last direct impact was hurricane Wilma in 2005 Irma in 2017 was too far west and south so statistically should have been hit by 2010 so we are now approaching 15 years past that due date. This is extremely rare for Miami to go this long without a hurricane hit . Last time this happened was from 1966 Inez to hurricane Andrew 1992 or 26 years.

I cannot emphasize enough that if your city/island is not on this list does not mean you won’t be hit. Last year the hardest hit area Steinhatchee, FL was hit by Idalia as a cat 3, I did not have this area in my top 20.

All residents in the Atlantic basin need to pay close attention as the season progresses for threats to their cities and be prepared in advance. I suspect a good deal of the 139 locations in the HC database will be impacted this season, so now is the time to discuss your plans.

I will be live covering hurricanes making landfall at hurricanecity.com and providing the heads up to my mailing list which you can join by making a donation of $20.00 https://hurricanecity.com/donate.htm. To see my past years predictions and see how it played out visit my predictions page which goes back 20 years . To wrap things up I hope if your city is impacted from my list you email me to let me know and media that has any questions regarding these predictions can email me jim@hurricanecity.com , be safe and thank you for your time….Jim Williams