Seeing eye to eye with Hurricane Michael

By: Jim Williams Oct,2018

I took an interest in hurricanes in the mid 1970s and since then have been in or near the core of 10 hurricanes in which half were major. Those were Hurricanes Andrew cat 5 to my south in 1992, Jeanne 2004 cat 3 just to my north I was in core, Matthew 2016 cat 3 just to my east in New Smyrna bch,FL in western eye wall , Irma 2017 cat 4-3 just to my S.W and Hurricane Michael this year where I was in the eye . On a side note hurricane Wilma 2005 passed right over my home with the eye passing over as a cat 2 after hitting S.W Fl as a cat 3. The reason for pointing these out is to let you know I have been in high winds before and that may have helped prepared me for what I was about to go through.

Since 1998 we have provided live hurricane coverage at hurricanecity.com for most major hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and for most other hurricanes hitting the U.S Mainland here is our list of video archives. We have always tried to show live webcams,chaser video,local news and stats as a hurricane is hitting. This process has become increasingly difficult as the years have passed due to copyright concerns, loss of internet streams, cams being taken offline and simply not very good reporting as hurricanes hit. Case in point the Weather Channel coverage consist’s of multiple reporters on scene with most if not all of them outside of the core of highest winds. They often show their main stars leaning in to the wind or getting blown over which can happen in category one conditions when the hurricane itself is major. Quite a few storm chasers used to participate in our coverage but have chosen to sell their video rather than share it live. This sets the stage for my intercept of Hurricane Michael in Panama City,Florida October 10th,2018.

Earlier this season Hurricane Florence was headed towards North Carolina and I wanted in the worst way to be there covering it as it moved onshore. I lost a close friend and had to attend her funeral the weekend prior to Florence hitting. The time left over would not have allowed me to set up properly in time to do an effective job covering Florence. At the time I thought “well usually (except for last year) there is one big one for the U.S (or none) and that is it” , but nearly one month later things would change as Hurricane Michael would head for the Florida panhandle.

Florence track
Michael track

So now that you know why I went in to the teeth of the tiger ,let me tell you what is was like the day before Michael hit. Oct 9th I traveled though Panacea,Apalachicola,Port Saint Joe & Mexico beach before settling in Callaway near Tyndall Air force base. At this time winds along the coast were brisk but probably not much over tropical storm force minimum of 40 mph. While passing through Apalachicola I noticed some small vessels and docks sunk beneath the rising tides. Traffic was light mainly outgoing but hwy 98 was passable late in the afternoon in both directions. It did not appear at this time that any homes were being inundated even if they were they were on stilts. My thoughts were NO–NO & NO for deployment to this area for Michael or any other storm as getting away from the surge would be problematic. Honestly the entire big bend Florida area scares the hell out of me when it comes to water inundation as low lying and vulnerable to huge surge. From just east of Panacea on Apalachee Bay all the way to my target area most homes were boarded up & people were getting out. Even fuel was scarce most stations with yellow caution tape on pumps as out of gas. I found one isolated gas station south of Panacea that still had fuel so I topped off the truck which ended up being my smartest decision the entire trip. As I was leaving Apalachicola it was as if I was saying goodbye to all of those structures along the coast but luckily most survived due to Michael making landfall further north. With a full tank of gas which is enough to get 300 miles I continued west towards Port Saint Joe. I had tentative plans to stay at the mainstay suites in Port St Joe but after viewing the property it appeared there were too many trees and the hotel was isolated from the downtown areas so I decided to head north. It turns out that the hotel had very little damage & many of the surrounding trees were left standing possibly due to Michael hitting further north.
1st option hotel

Each of these towns leading towards Panama City are separated by long stretches of wooded areas along hwy 98. As I entered Mexico beach from the south the tree canopy was suddenly absent with long stretches of exposed beaches. Small hotels & larger condos sprinkle the shoreline with restaurants, small stores & residential homes on the east side of hwy 98. Most structures on the coast looked well built even though they were mostly wood framed. Some condos looked to be CBS but again with a potential major hurricane on the way the place did not look safe at all. The few small hotels were not even an option as they were boarded up & wisely abandoned. If my truck were to survive, would I want to sleep in it for three days? NO. This ended up being ground zero right front quadrant of Hurricane Michael and every conceivable option for lodging ended up being destroyed. The town looked mostly abandoned a few people & cars driving around but very quiet. At the north end of Mexico Beach I was going to set my remote camera up on a canal facing the Gulf which in hind site would have been epic and could have caught the southern portion of the eye but retrieval would be difficult getting back in to this area from the north.

Potential mount of remote cam
Potential mount of remote cam

After deciding Mexico beach was probably not going to be an option I headed further north through another stretch of woods several miles to reach Tyndall Air Force Base. Several large guarded entry ways for military personnel only stretch all the way north to the Dupont bridge leading in to Callaway. Again this area very quiet as the bases were probably left with skeleton crews. There are no hotels in this stretch of hwy 98 which forced me in to Callaway but not before I found a good position to mount the remote camera where I could retrieve it before leaving. Notice the photo below the bill board crashed to the ground & the condo roofs took a beating.

Remote cam location before
Remote cam location after

After driving north on Tyndall blvd it appeared the closest hotel to the coast was the Comfort Suites. I investigated several other hotels just to the north but they did not seem as sturdy as the comfort suites and I ended up being right as they sustained significant damage in comparison. The photo below shows surrounding heavy damage but the hotel lost just shingles, some windows and part of the front canopy. The striking thing to me was that no one seemed real concerned about was was coming,even the clerk at the front desk did not seem to be concerned. I asked about a generator,are the windows thick?, do you have a room on the second floor in case of flooding?, do you have a room facing north figuring at check in the winds would be mostly south & southwest all questions seemed awkward for her.

Comfort suites before Michael
Comfort suites damage after Michael

Eve of Hurricane Michael we broadcast live on Facebook and Periscope at 8:00PM warning of the danger that is coming. Starting from the beginning of the video the threat is clear even inland is in danger.

Surprisingly the morning of Michael the hotel still had it’s continental breakfast & room service was operating as if everything was normal. I took advantage of the breakfast but my stomach was in knots so I nibbled & grabbed some bananas to go. I work outdoors in harsh conditions year round and have trained myself not to eat too much food or drink too much water as it will come back to haunt you in extreme conditions as bathrooms are not an option. This was yet another good choice as food was scarce in the aftermath along with power or running water. I waited until just before noon for the core to arrive which is a tradition at hurricanecity.com for all hurricane landfalls no broadcast until the worst arrives. Before leaving I made one final call to my co host Bill Phillips questioning if I should head out at all considering we now have a borderline category 5 on our doorstep. We talked about maybe staying under the overhang in front of the hotel but after driving underneath realized the view was not very good. Furthermore the wind would have been pushing straight in on the overhang putting the truck at risk of loosing the front window as the winds would now be East and N.E rather than the anticipated southerly winds. I decided at that moment to head south on Tyndall blvd in order find an open lot to ride it out. Just about a half mile south of the hotel I find a parking lot with a Texaco station which believe it or not was already mangled from either strong straight line winds or a tornado. As the winds at this point were mainly out of the east probably cat one, I decided to face the Texaco station west with the back of the truck in to the wind to be shielded by my lexan protective glass.

Lexan glass shield

As time went by the barometric pressure was dropping like a rock and the winds were picking up gusting to 100mph. As the pressure dropped to around 940mb all hell broke loose with he winds accelerating in what I like to call jet airplane mode. Major hurricane force winds were buffeting the truck with debris slamming into the lexan glass & the back of the truck. This lasted for maybe 15 minutes but it seemed like an hour to me. At one point just before the eye arrives the winds are so strong no matter what direction I faced the air was filled with debris as if a tornado was hitting seen in short version below.

Meanwhile the remote camera on the east bay was getting annihilated . The clips in the videos speaks for the violent conditions the camera was enduring which operated through most of the storm. White out conditions pretty much prevented any real good video so next time it will be mounted closer to nearby objects.

worst conditions on remote cam

Finally the eye arrives and I get out to survey the damage est pressure 923mb as my last fix was 924.8 while still coming out of the eyewall. I was too involved with damage assessment to check it when the calmest period was over me so I used nearby chasers readings.
photo of hurricane michael eye
Radar of eye
The truck took a hard hit as the paint peeled off the rear bumper with several dings all over the truck but the worst was yet to come (eye survey below).

As the back side of Michael was approaching I decided to head further south to another open parking lot away from power lines,trees and poles as I knew the winds would be shifting out of the North. Just about every store front window protected by plywood was blown out and the worst was yet to come. As the winds shifted the truck was getting pelted with larger debris than before and shaking more violently. At one point a large children’s playground set was being pushed across the parking lot as the cinder block building to my north blew open pushing items out of the side of the building. Suddenly a large object hit the top of the truck ripping the light bar off & flung it in to the parking lot. At this point I lost my internet connection with Bill & the stream was lost as the worst conditions were upon me. This was a lonely feeling as the truck was getting nailed ,then it happened the lexan glass broke .

object that broke glass
Watch closely in the clip below as the object pictured above about the same size as the hole to the right is stuck against the lexan glass, this could have been the culprit.

Luckily our internet outage only lasted for 15 minutes and we were back on air. For another 15 minutes the winds were well over 100 mph as I continued positioning the truck backing in to the wind. Finally things calmed down & the pressure was rapidly rising as I slowly made my way around downed power lines, trees and power poles to get back to the remote camera. The further south I got towards the camera the more damage their was with more people needing help. You see my truck looks like a city vehicle so obviously people thought I was the first arrival of help. I had several conversations with people explaining injuries needing communications in which 911 was down at the time. People needed to know where shelters were I had limited information and don’t even get me started on how many homeless people were in this area before the hurricane. They all had stories to tell I mean as high as the water rose in that area I cannot even imagine where they escaped to. All I could tell them was that help is on the way as I would later find out huge convoys were headed in.

Altogether these were probably the most dangerous driving conditions I have ever been in as the truck clearance barely made it underneath hanging power lines. At times I had to travel through grass and muddy areas nearly getting stuck but finally made it to retrieve the camera. Upon arriving back at the hotel I noticed about a dozen windows blown out on the north side of the building but luckily my room window was intact. After surveying the hotel it appeared that no staff was present but the main lobby was leaking badly. People were wondering around like zombies taking in all the views of damage with disbelief. Obviously power was out but so was water I could not flush the toilet or run water out of the faucet “oh I am so glad I did not eat”. I did however turn the AC down to its coldest setting right before Michael hit which allowed the cool air to stay in the room so I could get a decent nights sleep. At least that was the plan but all I could hear all night was the sound of wind in my head like white noise replaying the worst of Hurricane Michael. Not to mention with no ACs running you hear every foot step & voice in the hall ways.

After tossing and turning all night I left the hotel around 9AM still no one at the front desk. The hotel looked like it was stuck in time with everything disheveled and people wondering around not knowing what to do or where to go. One woman frantically came up to the truck asking if I knew where any shelters were. She had a disabled child and two elderly people who needed medical attention. Thanks to my buddy Gregg Gibbs in emergency management as he was able to give me some addresses. As I headed north the view of the damage was tremendous with scenes like this Waffle house everywhere. Sadly most of the TV & radio stations were knocked off air. I could only find one AM and one FM station with hurricane information one of them simply looping a press conference, is this the best they can do? PEOPLE NEEDED INFO (FAILURE).
Waffle house destroyed in Michael
Taking 15th street north towards hwy 231 not one building did not have significant damage. Further north on hwy 231 a reported 139 train cars were flipped over due to the strong winds. As I traveled towards I-10 the damage was still noticeable then I come to find out I-10 is shut down due to tree removal. I decided to take hwy 90 east towards Tallahassee traveling through cities like Marianna where damage was extensive.

Damage in Marianna from Hurricane Michael
This turned out not to be a good decision as traffic was flowing so slow it was mostly at a complete stop. I got back on I-10 west of Tallahassee only to run in to more gridlock as road crews were clearing trees it was as if Michael was a gigantic weed eater through the forest.

Trees I-10 after Michael

It ended up taking me nearly all available daylight just to get to Tallahassee in which many were still without power. After getting back on the peninsula I tried getting a hotel room after being exhausted from driving . Every hotel I tried was booked with power crews,insurance adjusters,tree crews and first responders coming up from the south but finally found a room near Gainesville. All available help was needed so I was not disappointed but before I crashed for the night I stopped in for a bite to eat at the Waffle House. I showed the crew the photos of the Waffle house crushed in Callaway seen above and they seemed a bit surprised making me wonder if the word got out of how bad it really was in these hit areas. So after getting back to my home base Delray Beach I took my truck to Prospect Plastics & Terry’s Toppers to show them what happened and how this can be addressed. Below is what the truck looked like immediately after Hurricane Michael, even one of the running lights got destroyed.

Damage to truck from Hurricane Michael

They suggested thicker Lexan when I said “I thought this was unbreakable?” with shrugged shoulders they said “nothing is totally indestructible” so I upped the thickness to 3/8 from 1/4 anything thicker would yellow from the sun. New matching running lights were installed on both ends and the hole in the roof from the light bar was patched. They mounted the new lights on the backrack eliminating the roof of the truck from any future damage.

new lexan glass for truck
new lights for truck

Overall I would rate this as a successful intercept with some minor adjustments needed for the next hurricane. I will do my best next time to interact more with the audience on periscope and to at least respond to the questions people were asking. I may do more interviews with victims and show more close up damage. I will take more digital video in the eye to examine the structure of the clouds and movement. I will install an external Microphone to capture the sound of the wind which you could not hear that well on the live feeds. I feel bad for the people impacted by Hurricane Michael as it will take a long time to recover . It is quite different to take the hit & get out versus having to stay in the area & deal with one problem after the next for months if not years. If possible we’ll see you in the next one and I promise to do my best not to disappoint, please spread the word and donate if possible,this isn’t cheap.Please donate any amount helps Thank you…..Jim Williams

2018 landfall predictions for hurricanes and tropical storms

Every year heading towards the Atlantic Hurricane Season the hype begins about how active it will be. All of the usual experts hype how many, how strong/ace and give practically even odds for large stretches of coastline about where they will go. Most people do not understand that it does not have to be busy to be a very bad season and there is a difference in where hurricanes tend to go in busy seasons vs slow which none of these experts bother to explain. Since 1871 seasons averaging 15 or more named storms have a higher landfall rate in the S.W Caribbean and the northern Gulf with slower seasons east Gulf, S Texas & the N.E U.S. Now this is not always the case as last year proved but Vegas odds makers would go with the stats and be right more than wrong.

I used 8 criteria for making my landfall predictions in 2017 which were pretty good considering 3 of my top 5 were impacted and 9 of the remaining 15 were also impacted. The one factor which really caught my attention was the positive North Atlantic Oscillation prediction in April for 2017 in which Marathon, Florida has been impacted in eight seasons with that type of set up. If you think that is nonsense consider right behind Marathon were Antigua & Sarasota with 7 yrs each both hit by hurricanes. Hurricane Irma nearly hit Marathon my #3 pick dead on as a major hurricane causing heavy damage. Normally in a positive NAO cooler sea surface temperatures will exist in the mean development region of the Atlantic. However in 2017 this region was warm which allowed Irma, Jose & Maria to become very powerful hurricanes while approaching the Lesser Antilles more like a negative NAO. Once again this year indications are that we will see a positive NAO and we are already seeing cooler SST’s in the areas where those 3 hurricanes formed. The winner in this category is Antigua impacted 8 times in this type of set up. NAO description

Image provided by the OSS foundation

Another one of my criteria is analog ENSO years in which I have chosen 13 past years that either are starting out similar to where we are at now as far as east pac SST’s or based on what model projections from April 30th are calling for. These similar years are 1955,1958,1968,1979,1990,1996,2001,2003,2006,2008,2009,2012 and 2014. The winners in this category with 7 similar years when named storms affected them are Halifax, Isle of Pines, Sable Island and Wilmington. Close seconds were Myrtle bch & Cape Hatteras, the more I did my calculations the more tracks like 1996 were lining up as a possibility with an increased threat to the Mid Atlantic states.

Another factor are return rates & the one area that stands out is the western Caribbean which is not only way overdue for a named storm such as Cayman Islands 7 years and 3 years for a hurricane considering this area gets slammed on a regular basis. Another area overdue for a named storm is Bangor Maine WHAT? 6 years overdue & new to the database . Come on Jim these things never make it up there, wrong as both Hurricanes Edna 1954 and Gerda 1969 which almost hit as a major passed just east of Bangor. Also the area has been affect by 31 systems ranging from extratropical storms to hurricanes. Out of my top 20 locations 9 are overdue for a named storm and 13 are overdue for a hurricane.

Speaking of hurricanes another interesting stat is how many named storms during the season when each of my top 20 were hit since 1900. Considering I am calling for 11 to 13 named storms 9 locations fall within this range when they have been hit in the past.

An interesting development in this years city picks is that 6 of my chosen 20 were impacted last year which is unusual and also a reminder that return rates are not my only factor for picking my top 20. The reason for this is because many of the locations hit last year have some trends from the past to indicate a pattern such as being hit 3 years in a row on numerous occasions or being hit following a major hurricane several times. Before I even pick my top 20 I go through all 140 locations in the HC Database to find the most interesting patterns going back to 1871. One that stands out is Cape Hatteras, North Carolina which has been impacted the past 2 seasons. Believe it or not 11 times this area has been impacted 3 years in a row in various forms. Another stat that is kind of alarming is the Island of Antigua impacted by major hurricanes Irma & Maria has had the island hit the following year 4 times after double impacts which is why they are number 7 and proves it’s not all about return rates. Below is my chart showing the methodology with yellow areas highlighted as the winners in each category which weigh heavy in the top 5.

2018 prediction chart

#1) Sable Island, Nova Scotia (same as last year)
#2) Wilmington, North Carolina
#3) Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
#4) Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
#5) Isle Of Pines, Cuba
#6) Cayman Islands
#7) Antigua
#8) Great Abaco Island, Bahamas
#9) Halifax, Nova Scotia
#10) Marathon, Florida
#11) Negril, Jamaica
#12) Fort Walton Beach, Florida
#13) Exmore, Virginia (Delmarva peninsula)
#14) Ocean City, Maryland
#15) Sarasota, Florida
#16) Boston, Massachusetts
#17) Bermuda
#18) Bangor, Maine
#19) Kenedy, Texas
#20) Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Here is the map that I produce every year for fun, last years was almost dead on.

Possible tracks

As I always say every year there will be an area or areas that are impacted that I did not pick. One area that comes to mind is the East coast of Florida with no locations in my top 20 other than Marathon. The east coast of Florida has a pretty regular return rate so any year this area is vulnerable. Another area other than Fort Walton bch is the northern Gulf of Mexico which also gets hit frequently especially in busier seasons but the unknown is how busy it will be. What I am trying to say is even though you are not in my top 20 consider last year the north coast of Cuba hit not in my top 20 by Hurricane Irma. Some areas I did pick were not impacted such as Montego Bay, Jamaica & #1 Sable Isl Nova Scotia. In any year regardless of numbers anyone can get impacted but if you are in my top 5 considering nearly 3 out of my top 5 on average are impacted you may want to take this season very seriously. You can see my city predictions including my past predictions with plenty of useful forecast links. I also have a video explanation talking further about how I arrive at my top 20. here , preparation is the key,good luck this year.

seasonal landfall projections

Since 2003 just before or at the start of the Atlantic Hurricane season I release my city predictions with areas I feel have a high to moderate risk of being impacted. Once again this past 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season I accurately predicted 3 of my top 5 locations to be impacted by a named storm or hurricane. Of the remaining 15 locations 12 were impacted ,11 of these locations were impacted by hurricanes. Even if I was not the one making these predictions I would sit up in my chair and pay very close attention. Since 2003 I have only had 2 seasons where none of my top 5 were impacted by a named storm,even in a couple of seasons of less than 14 named storms I have hit on at least 1 of my top 5. For example in 2009 we ended with 9 named storms I still had 2 of my top 5 impacted. The beauty of these predictions are that I use sometimes up to 8 different criteria to choose my top 20. For example this past season one of my criteria is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) in where model projections in April indicated a higher chance of a low to moderate El Nino (warm phase of the southern Oscillation) during the height of the hurricane season. I released my predictions on May 15th based on a weak El Nino which never happened but was also involved in only 2 of the 8 criteria. The other criteria had little to do with the amount of named storms rather return rates and environmental conditions such as the NAO (North Atlantic oscillation).

On September 10th Hurricane Irma hit the lower Florida keys with 130mph winds , my #3 pick this year was Marathon, Florida . This location made my top 5 for the 2017 season based on only 1 of my 8 criteria . Since 1990 Marathon has been impacted when there is an above average NAO in April an amazing 8 times, now i’m just a stats guy that will leave that science to the PHD experts. Marathon was also statistically 2 years overdue for a named storm and 10 years for a hurricane.

Prediction chart

Sometimes when viewing these predictions it can be just as useful to see who is not listed. Some very high hit locations that are impacted just about every other year such as Cape Hatteras and the N.W Bahamas were not chosen and had minimal impacts during the 2017 season. Some years there are hard hit areas that I do not pick but this year it was different. Even Ponce, Puerto Rico hit by Hurricane Maria was my #14 pick and those that have followed my predictions closely know I do not pick Puerto Rico locations very often. Gulf Shores, Alabama my #2 pick impacted by Hurricane Nate was chosen because they usually get hit in more active seasons and the chart above shows 13.66 named storms the closest to our final 17. I like using the variation of different criteria as sort of a fail safe scheme but honestly the most important factor are return rates. I do not pick Texas locations that frequently but this year I narrowed it down to Port O’Connor, Texas at #12 that was just missed dead on by Hurricane Harvey as it hit Aransas Pass with 130 mph winds.

end of season map

Predictions made on May 15th, 2017 in white

These predictions are not perfect in fact my #1 pick has not been impacted since 2009. This years #1 pick was the tiny island well south of Nova Scotia called Sable Island. There were a couple of systems up that way but passed too far south of the island or became post tropical to be considered a brush. Had that been the only area impacted I would have kept my track record intact with minimal disruption to human lives which leads me to my final points. No doubt this has been a violent hurricane season for many with 3 major hurricane hits and I did rank the big three. There were hundreds of thousands of properties destroyed with lives turned upside down but in comparison with the amount of square miles impacted the total death toll was low. I would like to think that some people in the Florida Keys “may” have seen these predictions before the season started. The picture at the top is me at a Florida Keys seminar on hurricanes a few years ago and who knows maybe someone remembered to take a look at hurricanecity made the proper preparations including getting out. Maybe you can read my face in that picture thinking “you all are in deep shit” but make no mistake Irma was no where near the worse case scenario for the keys.Had Irma not tangled with Cuba the surge & wind destruction wold have surely taken more lives. I think about the tiny island of Barbuda left uninhabitable by Irma and my #8 pick Antigua narrowly missed by the core and how different things could be there if the core passed over. To wrap things up the main concern going in to next year is not how many named storms but “where will they go?” I will release my predictions for 2018 probably some time in late May so stay tuned for announcements. In the mean time I wish everyone impacted by these intense hurricanes the best in their recovery efforts and hope these areas are built more hurricane resistant………..Jim Williams